Satellite hand, down to the end

[THEOSU]

2 seats awarded, 4 players remain. villain in this hand is a good player and is very aggressive. he has been especially so as the tournament has wound down, aware of the situation.


Stacks:
Hero 1.7M
villain 540k
others: 600k, 900k.

Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the big blinds. blinds are 10k/20k with a 2k ante.

folds to villain on the SB, he makes it 35k to go. Hero calls.

flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Villain bets 70k. Hero calls.
Turn is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain pushes for 415k. Hero?

[Mr.Poker]

Im gona pre-face this with the fact im def no expert at satelittes, however,

I think PF should be a reraise, he will be aware that you should in reality be playing the least hands of everyone and he is aggressive so he probably figures he can steal your blind pretty often.

Unless you think you can fold into a seat already (??), which means PF is a fold, I think I like reraising to 240k, showing him he is playing for his stack if he wants to go...

as played, im pretty puzzled by his overpush, i really have no idea whether he would do this with a J, or two pair. As the board is rainbow, this seems like it could easily be a worse two pair, but I don't know whether its worth the gamble at this stage of the tournament? (sorry, not a very helpful answer!)

[whynot?]

man for a satellite as the cl i really dont like the play

pre is either a fold or a significant raise, id vote for a big raise to 200k ish

post flop is too passive as well if you play - you cant call that - you should either fold or push

the turn perplexes me - he could have kj, qj, but the overbet isnt what any normal person would do with the str8. as played i call the turn

[locutus2002]

bump

[THEOSU]

note: villain made it 55k to go not 35k. my error.


it should be worth noting that the seat in question is a WSOP ME seat. 3rd and 4th place prizes are largely inconsequential. in effect it's top two get a huge prize, 3rd and 4th get nada.

[thegreatchris]

My first reaction upon reading was that you're ahead. Despite that, I don't think it's worth a call because of your current chip stack. It doesn't seem to be worth the risk, especially if you can enjoy the advantages of big stack play in a satellite. I think it's a call if you're on the seat bubble instead of two away.

[adanthar]

if you can fold in (this is determined solely by how the FT has been playing), fold somewhere...probably PF. If not, RR.

I fold on the turn regardless, you really need to have him drawing dead a large % of the time for this to be worth calling.

[locutus2002]

Hero can afford to take a flop and give up on it without affecting his stack. His priority should be to keep the pot small and maintain his chip lead.

I think that raising PF is a mistake given that villain should be willing to push a wide range of hands as the short stack and hero does not want to call off 540K even when he is ahead, even or worse.

the turn push is interesting because it's about the ace not about the jack.

Villain shouldn't push the jack here, but hero's hands for just calling PF and hitting the flop should not have many aces in them. Villain is representing the ace and giving up all the hands that hero has a Jack in them and probably an ace.

I'd guess its about 130 (~60 jacks; ~50 aces and some other junk) hands out of ~400-500 possible hands. So 2/3 of the time villain takes down 240K and the other 1/3 villain get stacked. It's a fair bet for villain if hero's range is wide.

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
... It's a fair bet for villain if hero's range is wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range should Villain assume then, with which Hero calls a big raise preflop and calls another big flopbet?? He should expect AQ, KQ, KJ, AJ, QJ. Any other hand would probably have folded the flop, or am I wrong?

In this case I can´t imagine with which hands (except the nuts, a set or AK which all beat us) Villain risks his whole stack, giving Hero odds of 1.5:1 which he could easily call with a two-pair to double him up. It would be a tricky trap in my opinion to let us think "he wouldn´t push with the straigt - so let´s call him".

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
note: villain made it 55k to go not 35k. my error.


it should be worth noting that the seat in question is a WSOP ME seat. 3rd and 4th place prizes are largely inconsequential. in effect it's top two get a huge prize, 3rd and 4th get nada.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really get sats, but don't we just shove this pre-flop, on the understanding that villain's calling range should be ridiculously narrow? I think calling the flop lead is really bad.