NL25 3-bet pot JJ flops set

Hellmouth · #1 05-15-2007, 02:40 PM

No solid reads on my opponent. He has maintained a full stack but has not played many hands.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
hero: $36.15
CO: $10.80
Button: $19.75
SB: $19.25
BB: $39.20

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
hero raises to $1, CO calls, 2 folds, BB raises to $3, hero calls, CO folds.

Is this a spot for a 4bet? I just call.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($7.1, 2 players)
BB checks, hero bets $3, BB calls.

I hit my set and bet half the pot because it is checked to me. Villain calls. My range on him is now AK, AA, KK, QQ, and some random garbage. I am ahead of most of the range.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($13.1, 2 players)
BB checks, hero bets $7, BB calls.

I think in retrospect I bet out more here. Like 2/3 pot maybe?

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($27.1, 2 players)
BB checks, hero bets $7, BB raises to $14, hero raises all-in $23.15, BB calls.

Spewtastic. I am ahead of most of the range but I feel like I am in trouble. Do I just call the raise?

Results:
Final pot: $73.4

Hellmouth · #2 05-15-2007, 02:42 PM

I am already looking at this more critically. I think that the flop bet was too low. Should be at least $4.

renotime · #3 05-15-2007, 02:44 PM

what the hell are you afraid of? quads? kings full? i'm going broke here no matter what. sounds like a cooler. i think i would have overbet the flop to push out a draw.

Hellmouth · #4 05-15-2007, 02:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what the hell are you afraid of? quads? kings full? i'm going broke here no matter what. sounds like a cooler.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. The action all the way through is weird. This is the exact line that 66 takes except for PF. The flop and turn are bizarre if Villain has KK.

My real hand read was AK. But the river action is screaming slowplayed nutz.

I think I am way ahead of the reasonable hands and am looking for some independant verification.

Greg

Antinome · #5 05-15-2007, 02:48 PM

I'd be betting a little heavier, but as played I'm eager to get it in on the river because he thinks AK is the nuts here.

CobraGoat · #6 05-15-2007, 02:48 PM

I think you need to make your standard cbet here, whatever that is. If you've been in this situation in the past and made a different sized bet it is odd. also, it gives your standard cbets (which are often times whiffs) more credit.

And with a hand like this, you want to try and get as much money in as you can. betting small on flop does not accomplish that. you're goal is to win a big pot with this big hand not a small/mediumish one.

Dunkman · #7 05-15-2007, 02:50 PM

Nothing wrong with calling PF in position.

Bet more on flop

Turn bet % isn't so bad, but pot should have been bigger because you should have bet more on the flop.

Spewtastic? Are you high? If the guy has quads or kings full then so be it, but to not get the money in on the river is criminal. You may be beaten 1 time in 5, and I'm actually giving him a lot of credit to give him odds that good.

Edit: 1 time in 5 is too generous for villain, this is AA or AK like always, with KK being the only thing I see that beats you. so we have 3 ways for KK, 6 for AA, and 12 for AK. I don't even see 66 because of the pf 3-bet. So 1 in 7 is roughly how often you're behind here imo. Variance sucks, but o well.

EDonk · #8 05-15-2007, 03:01 PM

For starters, I am stacking off here every single time... the only hand to be legitimately afraid of is KK, and if he has that, so be it. You would be kicking yourself if you ever thought about folding this for all the times you were shown AK or even AA....

Also, your range on the flop is entirely too narrow. I guess for someone who hasn't raised yet preflop to 3-bet out of the blinds might put him on a tight range, but I dont' know how many hands you have seen him play. If you did get coolered, don't feel bad about it.

yo5ty · #9 05-15-2007, 03:19 PM

flop bet a bit to low. I think 3/4 minimum, just to try and push out flushes, or make them pay more to miss.

Dunkman · #10 05-15-2007, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
flop bet a bit to low. I think 3/4 minimum, just to try and push out flushes, or make them pay more to miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop bet is too low, but your logic is all wrong. We bet the flop harder so that we can get all-in by the river. A flush draw is an unlikely holding for villain (it would pretty much have to be exactly AsQs.) Even in a hand where it is a likely holding, we don't want to make him fold it. We want to make him overpay to draw. Part of that is how much we bet, and part of that is getting away from the hand when he hits before we put enough in to justify his call.