AA facing heat

[jc1418]

still trying to think about this hand, everone tends to think he has a set and i disagree. this is a tuf spot. Its a good baord for him to c/r air and mix in his sets if he's smart. Being that he's TAG and you opened UTG I'd be inclined to take 56 out of his range. Its tuf because he is deepstacked might play something like 56s but I think it is in the very ass end of his range especially oop and if he is straightforward. Another interesting point is that this is a good spot for him to smooth call a large pair outta the blinds. Depends what you know his preflop tendencies to be. I really would not worry about him turning a straight. If you know that he would reraise all his large pairs pf, then take those outta his range as well. So depending on his preflop tendencies you should be able to weight his range toward air/set/overpair. I think we need more info on his preflop tendencies to analyze this properly. This is a good board to checkraise and follow through with a turn bet especially if hes aggro. Thing is you def get bluffed in this spot more than you assume. If he fires that turn with air, I believe hes going to fire a lot of rivers that complete draws. If you call this turn, I do not think you can fold the river to a bet. If hes decent he knows that on the turn you have to be holding an overpair b/c your not floating the flop with air to call the turn again. Basically comes down to how straightforward and aggro he is. If hes not tricky Im with shpanko and you gotta fold this turn. If you call, then call river. But his preflop style will give you enough information as to whether he can have a hand here or not. JJ-KK cud be in his range. Also if he is aggro and thinking wud you ever consider 4 betting this flop small, leaving him a nice amount to push over the top?

[Casper05]

fold the turn- I would call turn/fold river if the board were Kxx/Qxx though.

[steel108]

Played perfect so far; as long as you folded this turn.

[Soundwave]

Tough spot when he bets the turn, folding can't be terrible. I'm not sure I fold yet though.

As others have said it really depends a lot on how often you think he might cold-call JJ-KK in the SB, not to mention if he's potentially tricky enough to cold-call some suited connectors etc and check-raise this sort of board.

I don't see that much has changed on the turn though, and there isn't a huge range we're behind. A straight is unlikely, though obviously the 7 does give him two pair with 78 (also fairly unlikely imo) or perhaps a set if he didn't have one already.

Basically, against an aggressive tricky opponent i think unless you can narrow his SB cold-calling range to low-mid pairs, there's just too much chance we're way, way ahead of a lot of stuff - 66, 99-KK, maaaybe 89s if he'd bet the turn, and maybe a lot of overcard air - to be folding. Folding AA on this board on the turn all the time would possibly be pretty exploitable (but then, so would calling) - what are you ever going to show down with once you call the flop c/r and he bets a low turn card? almost nothing unless you've got a set yourself.. seems like he would have a pretty profitable bluff.

River will be a tough decision if you call and he bets big though, might well be a fold unless you think he can fire three barrels.