College Football Week 1

[VTsmalls]

This will be my first full season capping College Football, although I've bet games sporadically in the past. I'll continue to post here on a weekly basis, and will track my record faithfully. I'm confident in my knowledge and overall analysis of college football. My strategy usually takes into account studying many experienced sports cappers initially to pick out the games that are immediately named as possible opportunities. Then I analyze the games myself, gather critique on my leans, and finally post my locked picks. I will bet most games straight up in a single unit game. Each week there will likely be some games I value as a two unit or more game. Any games I value as more than one unit I will tie together into a parlay with a one unit price. That will be my strategy for the season. I believe highly in this method, because although the parlay's are not always +EV, my straight bets will likely make up for the difference and if I win 1-2 big parlays over the season it will make a big difference. I am new to this forum, but I have followed crockpot on here for quite some time in various sports. Thanks for being open in your analysis crockpot. I have learned much from your threads in the past. I have joined other forums online such as TheRX, which I value highly, but I like to seek out multiple forums to get a broad spectrum on everyone's input into the sports betting scene. I hope mine and your time here on twoplustwo is profitable. Let's have a good year. I'm excited about this season. It's almost like Christmas! Now onto my week one leans. I've pretty much got my picks locked in for this week, but I have not finalized the bets yet. I am currently doing the math and debating between having my weekly unit as $50 or $100. I will post when I lock them in. I am open at any time to any analysis you all post. I always welcome input as long as it is knowledgeable and not random nonsense. Ok, enough rambling and onto the picks:


CFB Week 1

BOL!!! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

0-0-0 YTD (+$0.00)

[brendanb438]

Um I don't think you are really suppose to link to files on 2+2 like this. Too many issues with viruses and other shiat.

Post your picks into the thread man.

[domer2]

Or just use Google Spreadsheets

[MyTurn2Raise]

no way am I opening a file like that

[VTsmalls]

Sorry, its much easier to post into a file, but here is the typed out version. The file has some more detailed info as to my betting structure, but here is the actual bets:

1*Bowling Green +14.5 (-110)
1*UL Monroe +4.0 (-110)
2*Michigan St. -20.0 (-110)
2*Utah @ Oregon St. Under 52.5 (-110)
2*UCLA @ Stanford Under 47.5 (-110)
1*Temple +21.0 (-110)
2*LSU -18.5 (-110)
1*Miami(Ohio) +6.0 (-110)
1*Missouri -4.5 (-110)
1*Mississippi @ Memphis Under 49.0 (-110)
1*Arizona +5.5 (-110)
1*Washington -3.0 (-115 - *Note, I messed up on the spreadsheet and posted this with a -110 when the board reads -115)
1*Virginia Tech -24.5 (-110)
1*Auburn -13.5 (****Note: I parlayed this bet with the Pirates, MLB, on 8/25/07. I wagered 100 to win 285.64. This will affect the record keeping stats. I will wager no more on Auburn, as I have a more than fair line now [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] )

Parlay:
2 units plays combined from above for a 1 unit parlay that pays out 12.28 units.

Michigan St. -20.0 (-110)
Utah @ Oregon St. Under 52.5 (-110)
UCLA @ Stanford Under 47.5 (-110)
LSU -18.5 (-110)

Note, my units will either be $100 or $50. I will confirm when I actually lock in these picks in the next couple days and what I set my units to be. I am currently working on math to support this decision. Total units being wagered this week equal 19, with a possible 28.61 (*Note, I got better odds on the auburn game so my possible units to be won equals 30.55) units to be won. If a $100 better were to follow this card and sweep the board winning all he would be up a net $2,860.74 net (*Note, again with the deal with my auburn parlay, my possible amount to be won equals $3,055.47). A $50 better would be up $1,430.37 net obviously. A total of 14 Straight Wagers are listed and 1 Parlay Wager. This might be too many, but I feel like this is a strong card this week with a lot of value. The 1 Unit plays I will make and say that I am not as confident in them as my 2 Unit plays obviously, but it is my belief that making these 1 Unit plays should be overall profitable as the year goes on as long as they are bet with a consistent unit amount. The 2 Unit plays I am more inclined to say will prove to be a better record than the 1 Unit plays, as shows my confidence with an extra unit. These picks are in no way a guarantee. Follow them at your own risk, but lets certainly BOL!!! The effort was certainly there to analyze and cap these games, and now all we can do is see if it pays off. I wish the best of seasons to everyone. I look forward to some good analysis, comments, and discussion in this thread and forum. Let's have fun with this and make some money!

[VTsmalls]

[ QUOTE ]
Or just use Google Spreadsheets

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be helpful to posting analysis and stats as the season goes along. Along with my wager stats, I will be posting detailed team stats on each of the games as college football starts. Being able to use a spreadsheet form would be nice and easy. Please pm me with instructions on how to use Google Spreadsheet if you find the time. It would be a big help to me and to this thread. GL!

[domer2]

documents.google.com
login or sign up for a google account
once you're logged in....top left....New>Spreadsheet
once you have that...top right, go to Share, it'll prompt you to save the document as a name (i.e. CFB 2007), and then from the Share tab, select "Anyone can view this document"

I use Google documents for pretty much all of my spreadsheets now, since I have multiple computers (desktop at home, laptop for travel, work computer), it allows me to have access to them from everywhere. Plus it's free unlike MS Office.

[VTsmalls]

[ QUOTE ]
documents.google.com
login or sign up for a google account
once you're logged in....top left....New>Spreadsheet
once you have that...top right, go to Share, it'll prompt you to save the document as a name (i.e. CFB 2007), and then from the Share tab, select "Anyone can view this document"

I use Google documents for pretty much all of my spreadsheets now, since I have multiple computers (desktop at home, laptop for travel, work computer), it allows me to have access to them from everywhere. Plus it's free unlike MS Office.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome man. When I confirm my bet amounts, and have my picks locked in I will post them on google spreadsheets.


Again, my picks are basically locked, and I will place those bets sometime within a day or two with my bet amounts. Let's get this season rolling folks.

Any and all input on these games I appreciate. Many of us go to college or live near colleges, and can offer insider input into our respective college teams and practice info. For instance, (I'm a junior at Virginia Tech) besides being motivated after everything that happened last spring it is a rumor that Metallica might play our "Enter Sandman" theme as the hokies enter Lane Stadium. If that is true, he is also expected to play a halftime show. I'm not 100% correct on this, but if this is true and I believe it to be so this will add so much motivation to our fans which will generate to the team. Lane Stadium is a powerful force when it is jumping with energized fans. What does this mean to us? With our always good defense, ECU won't score much at all, and I expect us to be in the range of 35-42. Having Metallica energize our fans...priceless?, yes, and also good for keeping our team energized and scoring late to cover the spread. Also, having gameday at our campus doesn't hurt either. I like Tech to cover the spread regardless. This should never be our basis for a bet, lol...

However, insider information like this is, and information on team's practices are encouraged in this thread. The more information we have to work with, the better we'll be prepared and the more money we make [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] . Let's get the job done.

[SCBet]

I'm interested in your thoughts on UL-M +4.0 vs. Tulsa.

Tulsa -4.0 is my favorite line this week. I think a team at the top of C-USA can easily win by more than 4 against an average Sun Belt opponent. Since they moved out of the WAC into C-USA, Tulsa has been good. In the past two years Tulsa has beat up the other team the 3 times they played an opponent from a bad conference ('05 at North Texas (Sun Belt) 54-2, '06 vs. Stephen F. Austin (Southland) 45-7, '06 vs. North Texas (Sun Belt) 28-3). I think Tulsa is expected to finish 2nd in C-USA this year, and UL-M around the middle of the Sun Belt.

I'm trying to figure out if I'm missing something, so I'm wondering why you went with UL-M, because right now this is a "lock" game that I find a couple times a season when I'll put a 10x to 20x bet. Of course I don't keep track of my stats when I feel it is a lock so this is worthless to everyone else, but I always find these "lock" games in mid-major or poor conferences where I feel oddsmakers don't have as good knowledge of the teams (last one was Boise St. -2 @ Nevada last season, anyone who understood WAC football knew Boise would win easily).

But yeah, someone save me money if I'm missing something.

[VTsmalls]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm interested in your thoughts on UL-M +4.0 vs. Tulsa.

Tulsa -4.0 is my favorite line this week. I think a team at the top of C-USA can easily win by more than 4 against an average Sun Belt opponent. Since they moved out of the WAC into C-USA, Tulsa has been good. In the past two years Tulsa has beat up the other team the 3 times they played an opponent from a bad conference ('05 at North Texas (Sun Belt) 54-2, '06 vs. Stephen F. Austin (Southland) 45-7, '06 vs. North Texas (Sun Belt) 28-3). I think Tulsa is expected to finish 2nd in C-USA this year, and UL-M around the middle of the Sun Belt.

I'm trying to figure out if I'm missing something, so I'm wondering why you went with UL-M, because right now this is a "lock" game that I find a couple times a season when I'll put a 10x to 20x bet. Of course I don't keep track of my stats when I feel it is a lock so this is worthless to everyone else, but I always find these "lock" games in mid-major or poor conferences where I feel oddsmakers don't have as good knowledge of the teams (last one was Boise St. -2 @ Nevada last season, anyone who understood WAC football knew Boise would win easily).

But yeah, someone save me money if I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

UL M had a new OC last season who implemented a new offense. By the end of the season it started clicking. Check out the first half of last season compared to the second half for UL M. This season they return all 11 starters on offense. Tulsa on the other hand has a new coach, new offensive system, and only returns 4 starters. This game also is on the road at a newly renovated ULM field. This field is probably the best in college football, and it is fast. Expect ULM to be comfortable with it, and Tulsa could possibly have to work to adjust to it. Also, Tulsa lost its star RB in the offseason due to injury. The backup last year had ~350 yards, two TD's, highly unproven. ULM's RB was the all SBC rusher last season racking up ~1200 yards and 11 touchdowns. Hes a senior this year. The WR's for ULM developed nicely last year, and theres also a good looking TE that is predicted to have a big year for ULM. Tulsa on the other hand lost all of its receiving corp, and did a poor job recruiting. They will have to settle for a couple JUCO transfers to fill in the gaps. I believe ULM has a real good chance to win this game outright. It is not a guarantee, but it is good enough to bet 1 unit on, or whatever your comfortable betting. IMO if we bet this game an infinite times it would prove to be +EV. Does that mean it will be profitable this time around? We'll have to wait and see. Good luck on your games. I would say don't make it a top play, but bump it down a notch to one of your regular plays.

FWIW, CFN.SCOUT.COM is a very nice website with a lot of insider information for free. Also check out TheRX Sportsbetting Forum for a lot of great analysis on any sport by numerous talented cappers. For college football I would recommend GoSooners. Hes an excellent college football capper. Other decent cappers have some nice info as well (SoonerBS, Winning Wand, BoxSlayer, etc.) Good luck with your picks SCBet. Were all in here to make money. Let's get the job done.