15/30LO8: Thin 2 Win

[donger]

The only reads I have on villain is that he just sat down with $10k in a 15/30 game and might be ready to gambool. Do you guys think this is a counterfeited and frustrated A23x enough to value bet this river?


Full Tilt Poker
Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Limit: $15/$30
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Donger is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, Donger calls, Button calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Donger raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, Donger calls, Button calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Donger bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Donger bets</font>??

[howzit]

his range looks like aces on the flop.

then his hand range has more A2xx in there but still could be set of aces slowding down against a wheel wrap that hit.

i bet/fold river.


btw, your preflop and flop play is quite laggy. you should come to nyc where the games are always like this.

[KneeCo]

[ QUOTE ]
and frustrated A23x

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok fine, i'll allow the premise, but what's x? cause if is anything but a KJT95 you don't wanna bet (note that your read isn't anything that seriously screams villain is calling with like A9, but if he has AJ you obv wanna bet here 100% of the time).

*

I would prob value bet if the river was a 9, might like a VB a T the prob with the Q is that after the way the hand went down 55, AQ and the like are checking to you always and KT might be feeling frisky too. All this and we haven't even discussed the very real possibility that he could easily have you crushed with like 2455 which explains why he loved the flop but slowed down after that.

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]

btw, your preflop and flop play is quite laggy. you should
come to nyc where the games are always like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was actually a misclick, this guy turbo 3bet from the SB.

[donger]

Thanks for the replies, guys. Here's some more stuff I was thinking about:

The turn seemed like geniune hesitation on his part. It seems to me with the amount of action he gave preflop and on the flop, he wouldn't slow down with a set+gutter wheel hand like 5524. I it's hard to figure me for a wheel wrap since most aggro opponents probably cap it 3 ways with that hand.

Also, in O8 I've learned that donking the river when your draw comes in is usually way more profitable than trying for a CR since scare cards are usually so scary. So with that in mind, plus the size of the pot making me a POW here, he's probably donking KT.