Commerce Cal. St. Champ. Event 2 LHE FT

[SCBet]

Down to the final table with 10 players remaining in the $335 Limit Hold'em Event 2 at the California State Championships at Commerce. 283 players started the tournament, blinds are now 2000-4000 and we're playing stakes of 4000-8000. Average is about 60k.

Hero is on the button with 66k currently in 4th place. Villain is in the big blind around 85k. Villain has been playing aggressive and raising a lot of hands pre-flop against a passive table when it was at 2 tables. Post-flop the Villain tends to continue his aggression until someone plays back, at which point he has either folded or called down. Villain seems like a knowledgeable limit player. Villain probably sees hero as a tight-aggressive player who picks his spots and fights hard for the pot once he is in post-flop.

Folds around to Hero on the button, Hero has A3o and raises. SB folds, Villain 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop is A-J-3 rainbow. Villain bets, Hero raises, Villain 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn is a 7 (A-J-3-7) putting 2 diamonds on the board. Villain bets, Hero raises, Villain 3-bets, Hero ?

Pot is now 90k. Hero has 26k left. It's 8k more to call on the turn, then probably another 8k on the river.

Calling down and losing will cripple Hero and leave him with 1.25 big bets. Folding will short stack Hero but leave him with 3.25 big bets and at least a small window to play back into contention. Calling down and winning will make Hero the chip leader and put him in excellent position to attack the other stacks and win the tournament.

Hero is playing for 1st-3rd because Commerce tournaments are super top heavy (1st pays $30k, 2nd $15.6k, 3rd $7.8k, while 10th pays $990). Although there are three players in the 15k-25k stack range, Hero is not looking to move up a couple places (even 7th only pays $2k).

Taking all of this information into consideration, what should Hero do?

[betgo]

I would probably call the turn and call the river. Leave a few chips left due to tournament structure in case you lose. Folding would be horrible.

Preflop I would fold because this hand is hard to play and no point attacking villain's blind.

[JP OSU]

I don't think there's anyway you can fold this in a Button v. BB situation...Couldn't he be going crazy w/ AK, AQ, Axdd?... Plus you're getting like 5.6-1 to call 2 bets... I really think you're good often enough to call down...

Betgo, you're really folding A high on the button when its folded to you?

[shaundeeb]

if you plan on every folding besides when a J or 7 roll off don't raise the turn.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]

Betgo, you're really folding A high on the button when its folded to you?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeh, really. I would push it with these stacks in NLHE. In limit, this is a really difficult hand to play postflop. I would much rather have any broadway cards or suited connectors. Plus you don't want to raise this guy's blind unless you have to, with so many weak players at the table.

[shaundeeb]

betgo that's totally wrong ace high in LHE has showdown value just betting every flop checking every turn and calling ever river is more +EV then folding.

[JP OSU]

I don't care if the guy is the [censored] God of limit poker I will take my ace high in position against his random hand every single time...

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
if you plan on every folding besides when a J or 7 roll off don't raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

so do you like raise-folding when a 7 comes off? i dont see how that can be good, guy def isnt folding an ace, and will cram will every better hand (maaaabye he slows down and we get the same amoutn of bets in vs AK/AQ?) so yea, i just call down after that turn.

[shaundeeb]

noo I meant calling the turn 3bet and folding if a 7 or J came on the river.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
noo I meant calling the turn 3bet and folding if a 7 or J came on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
If a 7 or J hits, you are almost always beat, but I don't know if you can fold with the pot so big against an aggressive opponent.