Week 1 NCAA plays and leans

[SCBet]

I also like Idaho +45 @ USC

I attend USC and follow them closely for the past three years. Since last year, USC's passing game has been poor with John-David Booty. Last season, USC scored more than 45 points only one time, and that was in the opener at Arkansas.

I don't expect their offense to be improved this season. Top receivers Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith are gone. RB Emmanuel Moody transferred, and now expected starting RB Chauncey Washington is injured and may be out for the game.

I fully expect USC to win the BCS title again this year, but since last year, their formula for victory has been solid defense and a solid running game. I expect the passing game to be somewhat non-existent, and the running game to eat up the clock. The only variable is freshman Joe Mcknight, who is being compared to Reggie Bush. But besides him, the other RB on the depth chart are solid, but not big-play running backs. I expect easy first downs, but no big touchdown runs. Idaho is horrible, but I don't think USC will score 45 points.

[iggymcfly]

Still don't have any money moved yet, but this is definitely a game I'd be betting if I did:

Arizona +5.5 at BYU

This looks like too many points for the Cougars. Arizona beat them last year (albeit by 3 at home), and it looks like the Wildcats are the much improved team this year. They've got 17 starters back including Willie Tuitama who led Arizona to a 5-2 record last year when healthy. Meanwhile BYU lost 9 starters including NFL prospect John Beck and while they may be the better team by the end of the season, I don't expect them to be in Week 1. Seems like this game should maybe be a PK at BYU or maybe BYU -2.5 at the absolute worst. Thoughts?

Also, to the USC student, your problem is that you're looking at this only from the perspective of your program. You're forgetting that Idaho is baaaad. In games against Pac-Ten teams last year, Idaho lost to Washington State by 46 and Oregon State by 38. USC doesn't have to be throwing all over the field to blow them up, just running in their turnovers or taking screen passes 80 yards should do the trick. I'd actually lean toward the Trojans, even at -45.

[MyTurn2Raise]

i'm leaning toward SC -44

[BobJoeJim]

I don't think it's a game I'll bet, but my lean is USC. They don't take their foot off the throttle too often, especially not early in the year, and the talent gap is just too large, I think.

[SCBet]

Makes sense. I would for sure like Idaho if they were using last year's rules on the clock which shortened the game, but with the change back to the old rules this year USC may score enough. I don't know, it's hard to judge their offense without having seen how the new receivers and new tailbacks play. I know the majority like USC because the line is moving that way, but I still lean toward Idaho so I'll bet it after the line moves.

[MyTurn2Raise]

the problem is that SC is so freaking deep that it doesn't really matter against this type of competition.

I think their 6 deep at the skill positions is about 75% top10 recruits for that position.

SC's 4th team of skill players would be 20 point plus favorites over Idaho.

Plus, their is little chance of Idaho scoring double digits

[DING-DONG YO]

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I'm a UGA homer so i won't add any analysis of my own (which is mad biased), but what do you guys think of UGA v Okie St. at -7 for UGA?

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I stopped betting on the dogs to cover about 5 years ago. They never cover [censored]! Save your money, DO. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[MyTurn2Raise]

UGA is 40-37-2 ATS the last 7 years
30-26-2 ATS the last 5

[whipsaw]

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I'm a UGA homer so i won't add any analysis of my own (which is mad biased), but what do you guys think of UGA v Okie St. at -7 for UGA?

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I stopped betting on the dogs to cover about 5 years ago. They never cover [censored]! Save your money, LDO. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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fyp [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[NajdorfDefense]

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South Carolina -29 v UL Lafayette bet 1.1u to win 1u

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if you haven't bet this yet, don't

Blake Mitchell is suspended for the game....bastard

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As are like 2 other players iirc.

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I think this is still 29.5-30 at a few places. fyi.