BB/100/hour projections-is everyone banking this?

[facialabuse]

I do about 45 minutes of actual work in my day job, so today I found myself making a spreadsheet of possible bb/100 rates and how much total profit you could generate playing different amounts of time in a week (all limit).
I think my model is a little optimistic-it has to be, or else everyone would be ridiculaballer. I may be overestimating the availability of games, and I'm including avg. rakeback. Even though BB/100 =/= BB/hr., I'm multi-tabling whenever possible so I think it evens out to approximately the same rate.

Some conclusions:
A low-stakes player averaging 1 BB/100 profit at 2/4, 3/6, and 5/10, playing 15 hours a week of 2/4, 30 of 3/6, and 15 of 5/10 makes 2875.50/month, and 34008 pre-tax yearly. This seemed reasonable.

Playing the same amount of hours a week at a more reasonable winrate of 2 BB/100 makes 55k+ yrly. (not exactly double 1st figure b/c im including rakeback).
This brought to mind a 2nd (and 3rd) question-with this kind of winrate:
a) can you refute the claim that you can't make a living wage playing under 10/20?
b) given that this is totally manageable with a 40/k 40/hr. week day job-and you have virtually zero risk-is my utility greater doing this than if I ever moved up?

Also ridiculous is looking at hi-end winrates that are still within the distributions of a lot of players on here (if they're honest). A player making 3 bb/100 and playng 6000 hands a week each (is that equatable to 60 hours?) at 5/10, 8/16, 10/20, and 15/30 would make 14.5k+ WEEKLY, 65317 monthly w/rakeback, and 782k+ yearly...
I looked at those numbers and was obv. like wt-monogloid-f
but as far as I can tell my math is on-point regardless of a little unconscious optimism.

Can Buzz as well as any other math-head confirm that I'm seeing this right cause im thinking why the f would I ever play plo 8 again.

[bbartlog]

Beating limit for 3BB/100 at those levels may well be impossible. But in general, I would agree that an excellent, disciplined player who played 60/hrs week at the higher limits could make more money than someone working a regular job. But the same is true of PLO8 (and NLHE, and probably any game where there's a big enough player base), so... what was your point again?

[facialabuse]

op was question, no point to make, checking math-
do you think 3 bb/100 is sustainable at 2/4, 3/6, 5/10?
is there enough of a regular game at the 3 above limits to actually play 60 hours at each level?
does 60 hours played=6000 hands?

I'm trying to get a handle on the mathematical foundation of my f-ing around

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
....playng 6000 hands a week each (is that equatable to 60 hours?)....

[/ QUOTE ]facialabuse - I don't know. (Because I don't know how many hands you play per hour).

To me poker is a card game you play to pleasantly pass the time or have fun with friends and you keep score with money.

I imagine some people think of poker as a money game you play with cards. (And that's probably a better outlook if your primary goal is to win money).

To each his own. My own on-line play has intentionally been very limited. Multi-tabling just doesn't appeal to me as a career choice. And my cardiologist tells me big bet poker is too stressful.

And to me the pain of losing far exceeds the joy of winning.

I like to get together with a group of friends for a friendly, private game. I enjoy the camaraderie, the excitement of seeing my cards, and the challenge of out-thinking my opponents. I take that attitude with me when I play in a public casino.

Playing primarily for money simply doesn't appeal to me. I don't see anything wrong with earning a living by playing professional poker; I'd simply rather do something else to earn a living.

But more power to you.

($2875.50/month actually amounts to $34,506/year).

$34008 or $34506 pre-tax yearly sounds very do-able. (I think you can earn more than that and have lots of other benefits as well with a different career choice).

Buzz

[donger]

O8 is so much slower than LHE, I think a lot of your estimates are wildly optimistic. I was playing only LO8 for a while and was having a lot of trouble playing 1k hands/day.

[I dunno]

[ QUOTE ]
op was question, no point to make, checking math-
do you think 3 bb/100 is sustainable at 2/4, 3/6, 5/10?
is there enough of a regular game at the 3 above limits to actually play 60 hours at each level?
does 60 hours played=6000 hands?

I'm trying to get a handle on the mathematical foundation of my f-ing around

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe sustainable if you play shorthanded, and practice good game selection, however that's going to cut into the number of hands you play. I don't really know though, I don't play limit consitantly, just when I see a good game.

[wiseheart]

There is a problem with those estimates, but Im too tired to figure out what it is at the moment.

edit..nvm [censored] playing 60 hours a week. I wish I had that kind of time.

[bballwiz]

[ QUOTE ]
O8 is so much slower than LHE, I think a lot of your estimates are wildly optimistic. I was playing only LO8 for a while and was having a lot of trouble playing 1k hands/day.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? how many tables and how long? If you 4 table I find you can get 1,000 in within 3 hours.

[facialabuse]

the smallest example I listed supposes a total 1500 hands a week 2/4, 3000 3/6, and 1500 5/10

thats pretty realistic, right?

if 1k hands=approx. 3 hours, we're looking at 18 hours?
so playing 54 hours a week=18k hands? 18k hands/week is close to my original "balla" example (782k)

also when I used to multi low-stakes plo getting 10k hands in roughly 40 hours/week was more common than not-but I understand limits slower

ahh [censored] nm. not trying to be sarcastic, but 1k hands/hr. 4-tabling supposes 80+ hands per table per hour on average...i dont think this exists
if you six-table, mb u can avg. 1k hands/3 hrs.
however, my original projection supposes that
a) you multi-table applicable small limits whenever possible and
b) 100 hands/hr. across all limits, so if I 4-table I only need to avg. 25 hands per table, which is obv. low
So-whats an avg. low-limit hands/hour. Obv. short-handed is much higher than fr, im guessing fr on avg. is 35-40 and sh is 70+. Anybody want to join in my random guesstimating?

[Micturition Man]

Didn't really read the thread, but yes, you can make very good money (by real world standards) playing almost any form of online poker at fairly low limits.

The only qualifier I would add is that in my experience, almost nobody actually achieves the theoretical potential of low or mid-limit grinding. People basically just burn out before they can play 8 tables for 40 hours a week for a year.

But like I said the money is still good. Probably not nearly as good as pre-UIGA, but good enough.

I used to get into arguments about this on RGP several years ago in the early days of online poker and people would always try to throw a monkey-wrench into my figures.

I remember Andrew Prock used the weird a priori argument that "anyone who can make $300k a year playing online poker could make a lot more in the real world". I guess the implication was that nobody was making that much, and if they were they were just wasting their time anyway.

Ah fond memories.