Rivered 2nd Nut flush but paired board - Value Bet River OOP?

[Grandma_DOG]

I'd been running roughshod over the table. My agg factor was over 5.0 for the 100+ hands I'd played. There was a LAG in the game, but not in the hand, so I was hoping to take the pot down on the Turn. But when the flush hit, I didn't know if they had stayed in for a runner runner low draw (which happens alot at this level), or a flush (very worried about) or trips (not as likely). Do I value bet on river?


Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) HERO is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, 4 folds, HERO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.5SB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.75BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.75BB, 3 players)
HERO... ?

Results:
Final pot: 8.75BB

[BlueBear]

Check-call river. A value bet is just too thin here.

[Grandma_DOG]

I ran it by my coach over at CardAcadamy-dot-com. He had a very simple answer. "Your going to call a bet anyway, so simply bet and fold to a raise."

Thus, statistically, you'll get value. Rarely will a crappy flush reraise you, remotely will trips or 2 pair reraise desperately. Overall, anyone who raises you has you beat.

That sounds like sound +EV advice. Anyone care to elaborate on it?

[RobNottsUk]

I think you wanna take a peek at another thread, where this dude puts in a desperation river raise to see the flaw in always doing that.

To chose between bet/fold and check/call you should consider, whether the player will call more often than he'll bet, bet more often than he'll call; and how often if you bet they'll raise (and with what hands ie. do they need to have filled up in that spot, or will they try to bluff raise on a very scary last card).

To know accurately, what that opponent is likely to do, you need a line on his early pos raising hands, and how passively he plays flop &amp; turn. If you feel AA2x, AA3x, A2HH is likely then you should get crying calls from A's up &amp; Q's up.

As is, it rather looks like someone who can't fold A2 on the flop (rather typical of that game), so unless that players a calling station (due to lack of turn/raise) if I have a tight table image, I'd check/call to let them bluff on the scare card.

Had a similar type of hand where a Fish flopped top 2 pair with me, had me out-kicked, no turn raise, I made the back door 2nd Nut flush and checked, eliciting a bet from the b'door b'way str8. There I may have missed a bet, as possibly that player would have raised, the b'door 2nd nut flush. However, following the bet/fold advice, I would have made a catastrophic fold. His hand was actually much stronger than I expected, but I thought if I check-ed he'd take a shot with a lot of weak hands on that board.

In your hand, it's easier to put you on the flush, and would be very hard for you to 3-bet the river, so I think I'd be tempted to take a shot, if I'd called flop &amp; turn with some kind of marginal draw, and I'd noticed you folding on the river.

[Grandma_DOG]

Clearly, the advice applies only for high hands where no low is possible. Obviously, there are far too many tight donks who raise their nut low on the river.

[TheCount212]

Only problem is if you have a low-shooter who hung in there until the bitter end and throws a desperation raise at you.. or someone on a spade flush who feels like contending. Plus, I'm whatcha call a "showdown monkey," so if I'm betting the river I'm going to have no worse than the second nuts (what you have here) and I'll call one raise.

[Grandma_DOG]

At 0.50/1 and lower, I'd call the raise. But 1/2 and higher, I'll fold. As 0.5/1 and lower is a bit screwy.

I think what the guys at CardAcadamy.com are saying is sound, dominating strategy for that situation.

[TheCount212]

Probably so, but I'm not a big fan of the b/f strategy, or, as I like to call it, "autofold." If my hand is good enough to bet, it's good enough to call one raise. But then I play low limits right now.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Do I value bet on river?

[/ QUOTE ]Grandma - Yes.

And then in my games, I'd also call a river raise, not so much for profit on this particular hand as for purposes of favorable "table image" for future hands.

But that might have to do with my general style of play and also my opponents.

In any event, you bet the river.

Buzz

[RobNottsUk]

[ QUOTE ]
At 0.50/1 and lower, I'd call the raise. But 1/2 and higher, I'll fold. As 0.5/1 and lower is a bit screwy.

I think what the guys at CardAcadamy.com are saying is sound, dominating strategy for that situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's too simplistic. I'm finding that you get a real mix of players, and 'inversions' in the skill levels and toughness of the game.

There's Loose types, who'll call with very weak hands, and also attempt to river bluff their way out of spots, inevitibly frequent after calling horribly loosely flop &amp; turn, when you have 1 side almost locked up and good chances on the other, and that's why it's often so hard to scoop pots.

I think if you do bet, because you think he'll call with more hands than he'll bet, and when you call you are winning most of them, and when he raises you are winning many of them, then the bet/call Buzz suggests is going to be more profitable.

But I find, if I bet many of the Fish players will fold (they were calling on a longshot), but I can pick up extra bets from weak hands. Rarely do they bluff raise, unless I've happened to have bet/fold-ed a few times.

Look at it from their point of view, you fold loads of hands, so if the pots grown large, they have a very profitable bluffing opportunity (when you bet/fold). Those 50c/$1 and $1/$2 games are full of loose passive opposition on the flop and turn (they are more aggressive pre-flop). Their calls do not mean respectable hands, and they chuck so many bets away on calls, what's a couple more to try and buy the pot?

The problem with bet/call on the river is that frequently it retrospectively gives them the implied odds they needed to justify the loose flop call.

If bluff raises are frequent however, you want to provoke them by betting, especially if that player thinks you'll check to induce a bluff.