200NL: Getting max value with nuts

[Speedlimits]

definitely bet river.

[scallop]

Initially I thought betting the river was opitmal.

But Im finding it hard to put villian on a hand that isn't a flush draw.

He's raising most pairs on the button, maybe limping 22-66, but then probablly not calling a turn bet with those hands (except 44, which is irrelevent since the money goes in anyways).

So why wouldnt you try and indice a bluff since it looks highly unlikely your getting called.

He could have something like Q9, QT - and then he's betting river anyways.

[traz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF? This is like the easiest C/R ever.

1)FD bricked
2)possible idiot gutter w/ 56
2)worse Qx is almost forced to bet
3)one pair hands aren't necessarily calling a bet anyways

[/ QUOTE ]

1 yes
2 no
3 no, we've already heard from worse Qx. Seriously, Qx doesn't call-call-call
4 yeah, but they do a lot and they always check behind

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think Qx doesn't call down, but you think this guy might have 99-TT? No way, just about everyone will raise those from the button.

Qx is DEFINITELY in this guys range, as are hearts. Anything else is unlikely...I'm not sure why you guys think pp's are the most likely.

I think cr is fine, but I'd probably be too scared to try it :P

[Cam5182]

c/ring is good in this spot because villain will most likely lead out with any Q or a missed fd. This is risky though because many villains will check behind w Qx or a busted fd.

I like potting here more but I wouldn't expect a call from anything other than Qx.

[Xanta]

C/R here sucks hard.

Medium pairs (TT, 99, 8x, whatever) are checking behind an overwhelming amount of the time and a whole lot of villains are calling a 1/2 pot bet on the river with them. Don't miss the value.

Qx is going to get all in with you most of the time, doesn't matter if you b/r or c/r. Even still, as has been said he rarely has the queen here.

Flush draws don't really bluff as much on the river as you seem to think.

If he floated you, he would have probably raised the turn. People very very rarely float and then float again when the 2nd barrel is fired.


Basically, he isn't bluffing frequently enough and is checking behind hands that would call too much for a c/r to be any good.

[gimmetheloot]

if villain has a small pair here we likely get no value from 3 barrels anyway. If he is bad enough that we do, prove to me hes not dumb enough to 'vbet' it or turn it into a bluff. I dont think he EVER checks behind Qx here. yeah right.

And I dont see why him calling flop and turn with a Q is so unpossible? its hard to rep much here by raising besides a queen, and makes hero fold a ton of hands.

I think the value we get by villain bluffing his missed FD/getting it in when villain has other queens and bet-calls his QJ or QT instead of quite possibly flatting our bet is way above what we get by sometimes getting a call from 99 or something.

[sh58]

i think $29 is a good number on the river. it's all fine

[sh58]

i don't really like the c/r, i think his range is mostly pairs 66+, and he is stubborn. i think he will check behind so often.

it is a shame we fold out the flush draws, but i think less busted flushes will bet than stubborn pairs will call, hence the bet (has to be smallish to induce the call)

[ilya]

c/r seems TERRIBLE he's not betting unless he would have called/raised

[Some9]

for the "small pair bets" crew, the small pairs will as well call a bet but wont call a c/r so its wrong to say c/r>bet in case he has 99/TT (which I doubt he has anyway).