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#12
08-22-2007, 12:42 PM
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Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
lol not gross at all
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#13
08-22-2007, 12:54 PM
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Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
lol snap call?
OP says he's seen him do this 5 times and he always shows up with aces. So were just going to ignore history and call because ZOMG we has KK? Even if we assume he's doing this with QQ+, folding and calling are both about 0EV. Not exactly a fistpump.
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#17
08-22-2007, 01:29 PM
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Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
If OP's read is accurate and we choose to ignore it, then calling costs us $162 in EV.
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#18
08-22-2007, 01:30 PM
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Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
[ QUOTE ]
I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK. [/ QUOTE ] He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...?
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#19
08-22-2007, 02:12 PM
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Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK. [/ QUOTE ] He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...? [/ QUOTE ]The chances of him doing this only 5 times and getting called everytime so OP saw what he pushed with is slim to none to begin with.Im guessing OP saw him flip AA a few times in this situation,but if hes that bad why assume hed never make a similar bad play with another holding.Call!!!!!!!!
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#20
08-22-2007, 03:16 PM
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Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK. [/ QUOTE ] He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...? [/ QUOTE ]The chances of him doing this only 5 times and getting called everytime so OP saw what he pushed with is slim to none to begin with.Im guessing OP saw him flip AA a few times in this situation,but if hes that bad why assume hed never make a similar bad play with another holding.Call!!!!!!!! [/ QUOTE ] We don't need to see what he has every time. All we know is that, out of a sample of 5 times, he's had AA 5 times and other hands 0 times. If he's doing this with a range as wide as JJ+, AK the probability that he has AA when he open pushes is 6/40 = 15%. This means that the chances he happened to have AA all 5 times out of a sample of 5 is (.15)^5 = 0.000076. Putting him on a range this wide given the evidence is unreasonable. At the very least, we need to weight his range heavily in favour of AA, which makes this a tough call.
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