Free card or bet for SD

Aggromang · #1 10-31-2007, 11:44 AM

Villain is 50/14 over 150 hands, AF of 0.85

2/4 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP checks, CO bets, Hero raises, SB folds, MP folds, CO calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

With the Jack on the turn, I was debating whether to take this line for free card or to b/f the turn for free SD.

Realyn · #2 10-31-2007, 11:51 AM

WTS is way more interesting ... if around 40 i would bet and check the river, if higher(with a good sample) bet both. If the wts is very low like 10-35 i´m a nit and check the turn/fold the river

rzk · #3 10-31-2007, 01:04 PM

wts is meaningless over 150 hands.

i b/f this turn for a free sd 100%.

mattnxtc · #4 10-31-2007, 01:21 PM

b/f the turn

edit..to expound on my thought

b/f this turn is best because he will rarely c/r you on a bluff. He is pretty passive overall (at least enough) that you can reasonable fold if he c/r and feel good about it.

istewart · #5 10-31-2007, 01:29 PM

You can't fold to a turn raise.

kross · #6 10-31-2007, 01:42 PM

In the games I play in, people will c/r bluff the turn when an overcard falls often enough that you can't fold.

mattnxtc · #7 10-31-2007, 01:48 PM

Villain has an pfr af of around .85...he isnt bluffing this enough

frenchpignouf · #8 10-31-2007, 02:14 PM

We can't fold the river with a check on the turn imo, it looks like we have AK, he can 'vb' A7 or something.

[ QUOTE ]
In the games I play in, people will c/r bluff the turn when an overcard falls often enough that you can't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

We raise pf, we raise the flop 4 way, we bet the turn : It doesn't look like we fold to c/r on the turn.

Moreover we can't fold to c/r, we have 6 outs quite clean. His Af is low, so he 's prolly not very tricky. He don't c/r too often even with a T (he would have 3 bet TPGK and call down with TPBK). We can do a safe fold on the river against a c/r on the turn.

If he has a weak T it's better to bet the turn and take a free shodown, because we have 6 outs to improve and we pay a bet on the river anyway.

numbnuts007 · #9 10-31-2007, 02:25 PM

edit: didn't see the gut shot. I think check turn, call river ui, raise if we hit our card. I don't think we can lay down this pair plus our outs to improve to a c/r on the turn.

HerbieGRD · #10 10-31-2007, 02:49 PM

I almost always check behind this turn planning to call a bet on most rivers UI (and value bet if checked to again unless the river is an A,K, or Q).