Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Sports Betting

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-05-2007, 01:30 PM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,784
Default Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

Didn't get any early lines in this week as I was in Vegas Sunday through Thursday and wasn't really spending a lot of time at my computer handicapping. Have some picks now though. Will post more when my Matchbook offers get matched.

YTD: 24-30-1 ATS/O/U, 1-1 ML, +1.15 units

Arizona/Oregon State over 54 (Risk 2.7u to win 2.5u)
Haven't put as much effort into capping totals this year, but when I've done it in the past, my results are just as good as with sides, and when I was looking at a possible side bet in this game, the over just jumped out at me. First of all, on raw averages, the average total for Arizona this year is 58.4 and the average total for Oregon State is 53.8. So just on the raw numbers, you'd be looking at a slight lean toward the over.

However, this game also features perfect matchups for the offense. Arizona ranks 11th in passing offense and 101st in rushing offense. They do much, much better when they can air it out. Well, Oregon State ranks 3rd in rushing defense, but only 93rd in pass efficiency D. Their strength (run D) is completely useless against the Wildcats who will be able to bomb away to their heart's delight all game long.

The other side of the ball is a little bit tougher to read as Oregon State ranks 32nd in passing offense, but only 103rd in passing efficiency. This is due to the large number of interceptions they've thrown on the season as they lead the country having thrown 15 picks on the year. As far as the over's concerned however, the more they pass the ball the better. When they can run the ball effectively with Yvenson Bernard (their rushing game ranks 64th on the season), they eat the clock and move the ball slowly down the field. However, their passing game makes points one way or the other as they either get yards quickly or give the opponents opportunities for quick scores off of pick sixes or by getting the ball in good field position.

Well, Arizona's going to almost force them to throw the ball as they rank 27th in rushing defense and only 73rd in passing efficency defense. The holes in the secondary will force the Beavers to take shots downfield and lead to the possibility of even more turnovers.

One worrying factor here is that Arizona in particular has faced some high-scoring opponents this year who also fit the matchup criteria pretty well in Washington State, New Mexico, and BYU which would reduce the value of the trend somewhat. Still though, I think a breakeven total would be in the 58-60 range here, giving lots of value to the over.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-05-2007, 04:21 PM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,784
Default Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

Utah at Louisville -15.5 (Risk 1.5u to win 1.5u)
Not the absolute best line for L'Ville here, but with the low push frequency on 15, it's still better than taking -14.5(-110). Anyway, I'm going against most of the forum here, but I really think this game favors Louisville.

Sagarin says that the Cards should be favored by 13.5 on a neutral field which seems about right to me. The matchups are slightly in Utah's favor which would knock it down to 11.5.

However, home advantage has to be worth at least a TD here. On the one hand, we have Utah, who's 2-1 at home with a win over UCLA and 0-2 on the road where they've been outscored 51-7. Now, they're traveling cross-country on a short week coming off a rivalry game and they're supposed to come out and play well? Really? It seems like they're ready to get rocked.

To make it worse, Louisville has one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country. Despite two poor performances early in the year, they're still 15-4 ATS at home since 2004. Utah's not used to playing in front of tough crowds and I really think it's going to rattle them. I'd predict a 41-21 final here.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-05-2007, 07:31 PM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,784
Default Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

POTW: Arizona State -9.5 at Washington State (Risk 2.69u to win 3u)
This line makes no sense to me at all. Arizona State's beaten everyone they've played this season by double digits including two teams better than WSU and WSU's lost by at least 20 every time they've played a BCS opponent, even losing by 21 vs. Wisconsin who couldn't beat the Citadel by more than 14. Sagarin has ASU rated as a 19.5 point favorite.

If that wasn't enough, the matchups are favorable too. WSU's a pure passing team ranking 17th in passing and only 85th rushing the ball and they go up against the 6th best pass efficency defense in the country. Arizona State is also a passing team, leading the Pac-Ten in pass efficiency and only having similar numbers of rush/pass attempts due to the fact they've been playing from in front the entire season. Washington State, meanwhile ranks 111th in pass efficiency defense, barely beating out Stanford for worst in the Pac-Ten.

There's not even worry of a letdown/lookahead game as ASU's coming off a win over Stanford and will be facing Washington next week. The only possible reason to worry here is that ASU's untested on the road and WSU's 2-0 at home. Still though, beating Idaho and SDSU isn't very impressive and WSU's 10-11 home record under Bill Doba going into the year is actually worse than their record on the road. As for the Sun Devils, the one time they did play on the road, they beat Stanford by 38. Also, WSU's been falling so fast since Doba took over that it's very doubtful the first few games this year have been a fluke. All things considered, I see no reason the Sun Devils shouldn't win this game by 20+.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-05-2007, 07:35 PM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Evolving Day-By-Day
Posts: 18,508
Default Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

uh-oh...iggy and I have the same POTW

Dr Bob is also on ASU

this is lining up to be a disaster
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-05-2007, 07:43 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: taking DVaut\'s money
Posts: 3,294
Default Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

[ QUOTE ]
uh-oh...iggy and I have the same POTW

Dr Bob is also on ASU

this is lining up to be a disaster

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a little concerned that seemingly everyone is on ASU (I have 3 units on them myself) - someone out there must be betting WSU or else we'd be seeing more line movement, I have to think.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-05-2007, 10:19 PM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Evolving Day-By-Day
Posts: 18,508
Default Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

isn't rwperu the resident ASU student/expert?
I thought pirateboy had the Phoenix connection as well.

get them both in here to report on what I'm missing

I know Torain is out, but what else
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 10-06-2007, 12:03 AM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,784
Default Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

Pretty sure that fading all my picks smaller than 2 units would give you a better record than just about any capper you can find. So 0-1, -1.5 units on the week. To be fair though, ESPN's news archive on Louisville didn't show anything about Urrutia or Douglas.

OK, back to the picks:

Florida at LSU -7.5 (Risk 2u to win 2.12u)
OK, first off, LSU is significantly better than Florida. 6 more starters back from an equivalent team last year and 5.5 points better on a neutral field by Sagarin based on this year's results. Personally, I think they're even better than that as they were only really tested in one game and let up on the gas early in the other contests.

The real key here though is the home advantage. Phil Steele rates LSU's home advantage at 5 points and it's well known that the advantage is much higher for night games. Florida, meanwhile doesn't deal well with hostile crowds. Under Urban Meyer, the Gators are 5-4 SU and 1-8 ATS on the road. Florida should have major troubles in Death Valley, and with the HFA, I'd expect a 14 point victory for the Tigers.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 10-06-2007, 01:41 AM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,784
Default Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

Also on:

Wisconsin at Illinois -2.5 (Risk 1u to win 1.08u)
Basically just had a feeling that a Top 5 team gettng 2.5 points from an unranked team would have to be a situation the BSPs would love which was confirmed when Bookmaker listed Wisconsin as the most common college football bet for Saturday. This is pretty much a straight fade on the public as while I've been saying that Wisconsin was overrated all year long, I probably would have set a fair line at PK or Ill -1 on Sunday morning.

I've still got two more picks where my bets have been partially accepted on Matchbook but the lines have moved slightly. One's a double-digit road dog that I'm pretty sure I'll end up with a full play on, while the other's a road favorite that's moved away from me where the 1/3 of a unit I have now is likely all I'll get. FWIW, if I have less than 1/2 a unit in play, I don't count it for my record.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 10-06-2007, 04:37 AM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,784
Default Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

In the doesn't count for my record unless I lose/figured I'd take a free $10 category, I'm adding:

Notre Dame at UCLA -1600 (Risk 1.6u to win 0.1u)
Seriously, can't imagine UCLA losing here. Would have pounded UCLA -20.5 if Dr. Bob hadn't moved it first. Scared to death to play a Dr. Bob best bet after it's crossed a key number though.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 10-06-2007, 04:53 AM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,784
Default Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks

Was just about to go to bed with my alarm set for 9:30 MST when I realized that the Georgia Tech game's not televised. Now, I'm not sure if I'm going to get up before my last play, so I'm just going to post it now:

Minnesota +14 (-108) at Indiana
I'm pretty sure it will get taken for a full 2 units, but if not, it could be as low as 0.25u. FWIW, it's actually available at +100 at 5dimes right now, so if you want to follow, that's a lot better bet, but I don't have money there at the moment and I couldn't get a transfer done before bed. In fact, if you really want to help me out, you could arb the +14(+100) on 5dimes with the -14(+106) and -14 (+104) (after commission) on Matchbook and ensure that my Minny bet gets taken. Cheers.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.