Iggy's Week 5 NCAA Picks

[iggymcfly]

Adding some first half plays:

<u>West Virginia at USF +4 (Risk 1.15u to win 1u)</u>
It's the biggest home game in USF history, they're having their first ever sellout in the new stadium, and it's a night game on ESPN. If USF can't come out pumped up here, I don't know what to say. Honestly, this is the kind of game where if USF's not at least tied at the half, they're probably not going to cover.

<u>Ohio State -13.5 at Minnesota[/b] (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)</u>
Minny's so bad that their best shot at covering (the game line) is to backdoor it after OSU lets their foot off the gas with Tressel not wanting to run up the score. Well, there's no way that Tressel lets up in the first half if the margin's 3 TDs or less.

[iggymcfly]

So now that my card's pretty much finalized (shouldn't have any more bets except halftimes), here's what I'm on this week in one convenient post:

POTW: West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)
Air Force +2.5 at Navy (Risk 2u to win 2.04u)
Mississippi State +13.5 at South Carolina (Risk 1.03u to win 1u)
Michigan State +7.5 at Wisconsin (Risk 1u to win 0.99u)
Ohio State -23.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.07u to win 1u)
West Virginia at USF +4 (Risk 1.15u to win 1u)
Ohio State -13.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)

[iggymcfly]

I figured that as I'm loading up on USF, I might as well add this:

West Virginia at USF +270 (Risk 1u to win 2.7u)

Put an offer out on Matchbook and figuring it would take a while to get matched, but someone got on it right away. Probably should have waited as +272 is already freely available.

[iggymcfly]

Confession time: I've been using $100 units this year because that's why I did last year, but at no time this year has my sports BR had close to 100 units in it. So with 5.3 "units" riding tonight, let's just say:

GOGOGO USF!

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
I honestly have no idea what's going to happen in the NCSt/Lou game. I was thinking at first that the public might be overreacting, but then I looked at the Sagarin ratings, and they said the line should only be 1.5 so I threw that out. Really can't pick a side there at all.

Also, I don't think Ohio State's undervalued as much as I think Minnesota's overvalued. They're coming off a bowl season where they benefited from a +18 turnover margin, and they haven't really played any high-profile games yet for people to realize how bad they are. I think they're the second-worst team in the conference behind Northwestern.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Minnesota may even be worse than Northwestern. But 23.5 points is a lot on the road for a young Ohio State team. I don't think Minnesota puts up more than 10 points but I'm unsure how Ohio State's Offense will perform in a hostile environment. I am leaning on Ohio State here, but not strongly. Michigan seems like better value going into Northwestern to me.

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
Adding some first half plays:

<u>West Virginia at USF +4 (Risk 1.15u to win 1u)</u>
It's the biggest home game in USF history, they're having their first ever sellout in the new stadium, and it's a night game on ESPN. If USF can't come out pumped up here, I don't know what to say. Honestly, this is the kind of game where if USF's not at least tied at the half, they're probably not going to cover.

<u>Ohio State -13.5 at Minnesota[/b] (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)</u>
Minny's so bad that their best shot at covering (the game line) is to backdoor it after OSU lets their foot off the gas with Tressel not wanting to run up the score. Well, there's no way that Tressel lets up in the first half if the margin's 3 TDs or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where the hell are you finding OSU -13.5? I'm seeing it at 23.5 everywhere.

[MicroBob]

Tom: First half plays!!!


Is MIN really worse than ILL and IND too??

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
Tom: First half plays!!!


Is MIN really worse than ILL and IND too??

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh! Didn't see that. I'd be more tempted to take Ohio State -23.5 1st half than for the whole game! -13.5 is easy money!

Illinois is not a bad team. Indiana put up 21 more points on Akron than OSU did, I would definitely pick them over Minnesota and likely Northwestern. They may even beat Iowa, who knows. Minnesota and Northwestern can only beat each other unless something drastically changes.

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
hey bills217 or anyone else-

Thoughts on Kentucky? Are they likely to take their foot off the gas when they get up on Fla. Atlantic, or do they let Woodson run up the score to pad his stats?

I got a little piece at 23.5 and am considering adding more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say 24 is pretty much accurate. Kentucky is banged up and I would think they will try to use Little/Dixon/Burton as little as possible, a) because they are all battling nagging injuries and b) because Kentucky has a short week with a huge showdown looming against South Carolina on Thursday night. Also, Kentucky's backup QB is pretty much awful if it becomes a blowout, and Rich Brooks has never been one to pour it on - against Eastern Ky./Kent, we were basically trying as hard as we could not to score near the end of the game.

Also, Florida Atlantic is not total filth in the Temple/Buffalo/Notre Dame (ha!) sense - they have done some good things this year.

So yeah, I guess if you made me bet I'd take Florida Atlantic - I'll be at the game so I might make an action junkie bet on them if I find a decent line, but no more than that. Total I think is close too - if you made me bet it I lean under but no big edge there.

Edit: I think there will continue to be some value on Kentucky unders in the near future because 1) They've gone over every game so far and everyone now knows how good Kentucky's offense is, and 2) Kentucky's defense is still widely perceived as a liability which could not be farther from the truth.

Edit again: Looks like the O/U has corrected from 68 to 65, I was thinking it was still 68 - maybe under did have some value there but it is dead on now.

[bills217]

Looks like it's gonna be hookers and blow on Iggy! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]