All regulation is doomed to fail

[Cactus Jack]

Let's face a simple truth. We're talking about Prohibition, again. It cannot work. It never has and never will. The govt cannot legislate morality. They cannot stop the flow of drugs into the US. They can't stop drug addicts from using drugs. They couldn't stop rumrunners and gin mills. And they can't stop people from online gambling, whether it's sportsbetting, poker or bingo.

Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? Suddenly we're going to be taxed and regulated and everything will be as it was? Both of those sites have flourished since the UIGEA passed and Party and others turned tail and ran away.

If Party et al become regulated and the other sites aren't, but are more profitable for players, do you think the players won't go where they get a better deal? Example: Party has no rakeback. Full Tilt gives 30% rakeback. Where will people play?

As we remember, when sites started rakeback, there were many of us who stopped playing on Party, which didn't have rakeback for a long time. We made more money, even if there were many more fish at Party. There were enough fish at the sites that gave rakeback to more than offset the easier games. We played on Empire and the other sites which did, until Party gave rakeback and that ended the other sites. People will still make the determination of where they do better.

If there are regulations passed which will allow people to deposit legally, what makes anyone think they won't be able to use the same system, or another system, to deposit at the unregulated sites? Again, people will go where they get the biggest bang for their bucks, and does anyone think a regulated site will have more to offer than an unregulated? Will the regulated sites be allowed to advertise and the unregulated will not? No. Free speech. The unregulated sites will advertise the same.

Banks are insured by the FDIC. If some bank starts up that gives people 300% better interest-rate and a free toaster, how many people will say, "I'm not going there because they aren't a part of the FDIC"?

It's only a matter of time before this all goes away and it's back to business as usual. The WTO decision may hasten it, as the govt at some point is going to have to surrender, sooner or later. They can't stop people from doing what they want to do. Laws only work if people are willing to obey them.

Many of you aren't old enough to remember when the speed limit laws were lowered to 55 maximum. NOBODY drove 55. They bought crude radar detectors and it started a CB craze. 10-4, good buddy. Eventually, the govt gave up trying to enforce a law that no one obeyed. The same thing is going to happen here. It's just a matter of time.

What's even more likely to happen, eventually, is the end of all government as we know it. The Internet is what has allowed the global economy to work. It won't matter anymore where your bank is located, when you can move money around at the click of a mouse. It won't matter where something is made, or shipped or whether the company has a brick and mortar location, as the money comes out of your account in Switzerland for a product manufactured in Sri Lanka and shipped out of a warehouse in Papua by a company owned in Tai Pei. We won't care. It will be delivered to our door. It's already happening.

Online gambling is really the vanguard of changes going on in all areas of the economy. The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along. Eventually, it is going to break down all borders and traditional national identities. This is the first of many attempts at stopping the inevitable tide.

Don't worry so much. It's all going to work out in its own time. Spend time working on your game for the next boom. lol

Carry on. As you were.

CJ

[antneye]

Funny meeting you here.

I am studying real hard and doing better than ever.

Thanks for the moral boost.

[JPFisher55]

I hope that you are right Cactus Jack.

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line?

[/ QUOTE ]

i've thought about this a lot. obv. the answer is no, so wtf, that's y i don't really follow the legislation anymore. nothing is going to change.

[MiltonFriedman]

"Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? "

Based upon personal conversations with poker site owners, ANY site which could get a US license would do so.

....

"The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along."

Cactus, you really misunderstand politics and the public's social order.

Sadly, "People" are willing to "go along" with almost any regulation because they are willing to buy into fear of free markets.

I agree that Internet commerce is defintiely a cross-border phenomenon of common interests. However, you dismis too readily other social bonds and forces in your belief that commerce is all-powerful.

[Grasshopp3r]

Let me also add, there will be other currency systems which will further erode the governments' ability to tax and spend. We all trust the value of the dollar in low inflationary times, but if inflation reignites, there will be even more incentive to move into alternative currencies.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
"Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? "

Based upon personal conversations with poker site owners, ANY site which could get a US license would do so.

....

"The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along."

Cactus, you really misunderstand politics and the public's social order.

Sadly, "People" are willing to "go along" with almost any regulation because they are willing to buy into fear of free markets.

I agree that Internet commerce is defintiely a cross-border phenomenon of common interests. However, you dismis too readily other social bonds and forces in your belief that commerce is all-powerful.

[/ QUOTE ]

While they may say they'll get a US license, what they actually do will be seen at a later date.

I agree with you, Milton, on the herd mentality and the fear of change, but I believe more in inevitable social evolution. Change happens whether we want it to or not. Just a couple of years ago, Internet shopping was considered a novelty. This year, it could make or break some companies who are prepared or not prepared for the Christmas shopping season.

It wasn't long ago that people had a very strong fear of computers. Now, they sell them like refrigerators. Those of us with computer knowledge are well aware they are still computers which don't work like a microwave or VCR.

The govt has never lead anything. The govt has always been behind every curve of change. The only way they can lead is by finding a parade and trying to get in front of it. Al Gore's claim of inventing the Internet is a great example. The parade was going strong by the time he got in front of it, too late, I might add, because by the time he said it everyone knew it was a joke.

I think there will be more sites, more options, more of everything by '09. Whether there will be another boom is a different question. People's attention spans are pretty short, and another pretty girl will walk by in a few seconds. I'm not worried at all whether I'll be able to play legally or not. I didn't drive 55, and I've been known to fire up a bowl on occasion. Like everyone else, it's up to me to decide which laws I'll support and am prepared to deal with the consequences of violating the law. Funny thing is, the lawmakers know it, while the general population doesn't. It's why the laws actually work.

[DeadMoneyDad]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's face a simple truth. We're talking about Prohibition, again. It cannot work. It never has and never will. The govt cannot legislate morality. They cannot stop the flow of drugs into the US. They can't stop drug addicts from using drugs. They couldn't stop rumrunners and gin mills. And they can't stop people from online gambling, whether it's sportsbetting, poker or bingo.

[/ QUOTE ]

100% Agree, history has show prohibition an abject failure in generally and the UIGEA specifically.

[ QUOTE ]
do you think the players won't go where they get a better deal? Example: Party has no rakeback. Full Tilt gives 30% rakeback. Where will people play?

[/ QUOTE ]

A free market almost always rewards the best product. While it may not be the absolute best product in terms of value and utility, things like customer service and advertising come into play, but I'd almost 100% agree with those simple caveots.

[ QUOTE ]
As we remember, when sites started rakeback, there were many of us who stopped playing on Party, which didn't have rakeback for a long time. We made more money, even if there were many more fish at Party. There were enough fish at the sites that gave rakeback to more than offset the easier games. We played on Empire and the other sites which did, until Party gave rakeback and that ended the other sites. People will still make the determination of where they do better.

If there are regulations passed which will allow people to deposit legally, what makes anyone think they won't be able to use the same system, or another system, to deposit at the unregulated sites? Again, people will go where they get the biggest bang for their bucks, and does anyone think a regulated site will have more to offer than an unregulated? Will the regulated sites be allowed to advertise and the unregulated will not? No. Free speech. The unregulated sites will advertise the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where we part company in our mutual agrementfest.

UIGEA set the minimum bar for on-line transfers for US players. All those folks who have been spending hours deciding on the UIGEA regulations are going to be the "experts" when any changes to the UIGEA are proposed. Those Federal "moles" in their windowless offices have a vested interest in staying in the UIGEA game. Given that we are also likely looking at a change of administration between now and any passage, any new administration's appointee's are going to look to the history of the issue and the "on the shelf" work from their Agencies perspective.

If you think that any poker site that doesn't kow-tow to the new matrix call it IGREA or whatever will be able to easily take US deposits you don't know this small town called D.C. You really think they are going to repeal UIGEA with some sort of toothless regulations that allow any poker site to thumb their nose at the US?

[ QUOTE ]
Banks are insured by the FDIC. If some bank starts up that gives people 300% better interest-rate and a free toaster, how many people will say, "I'm not going there because they aren't a part of the FDIC"?

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd be amazed at the number of people who will not keep a dime more than $100k in a single FDIC bank or account. You couldn't comvince most of them to deposit more to even a FDIC insured account for a new car and a blow job, let alone a toaster......

[ QUOTE ]
It's only a matter of time before this all goes away and it's back to business as usual. The WTO decision may hasten it, as the govt at some point is going to have to surrender, sooner or later. They can't stop people from doing what they want to do. Laws only work if people are willing to obey them.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the laws like the simple regulatory matrix I've suggested provide protections and ease of deposit and withdraw, and give some sort of gaming stamp of aproval to the games people will come back out in droves. The fish will be lining up to jump into your lap.

[ QUOTE ]
Many of you aren't old enough to remember when the speed limit laws were lowered to 55 maximum. NOBODY drove 55. They bought crude radar detectors and it started a CB craze. 10-4, good buddy. Eventually, the govt gave up trying to enforce a law that no one obeyed. The same thing is going to happen here. It's just a matter of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have it even worse than most. I learned to drive on the Italian Autostrada. When I got my D/L in the US, the speed limit was 70, which was stupid in my opinion. I barely had a chance to get used to 70 and they changed it to 55!!! In Italy we drove 55 in town on cobble stone streets in REVERSE! ( Well maybe not in reverse but it sure seemed like it. )

[ QUOTE ]
What's even more likely to happen, eventually, is the end of all government as we know it. The Internet is what has allowed the global economy to work. It won't matter anymore where your bank is located, when you can move money around at the click of a mouse. It won't matter where something is made, or shipped or whether the company has a brick and mortar location, as the money comes out of your account in Switzerland for a product manufactured in Sri Lanka and shipped out of a warehouse in Papua by a company owned in Tai Pei. We won't care. It will be delivered to our door. It's already happening.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to brag but I've moved a lot of money all over the world quick enought to profit from the difference between the bid and ask in two or three different marktes simultaniously. In those transactions you have the risk of being wrong or not quick enough with the added problem of a currency move that can wipe out a month's worth of work. There is a risk with any type of e-commerce poker or not.

But if you think the US poker market will ever grow at any reasonable rate, or that the fish out there are going to come out of the woodwork to play in any type of at best "quasi-legal" poker game, I think you are sorely mistaken.

[ QUOTE ]
Online gambling is really the vanguard of changes going on in all areas of the economy. The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along. Eventually, it is going to break down all borders and traditional national identities. This is the first of many attempts at stopping the inevitable tide.

Don't worry so much. It's all going to work out in its own time. Spend time working on your game for the next boom. lol

Carry on. As you were.

CJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Not once since Al Gore "invented" the internet has this utopian dream happened. Yes the internet has forced many changes on governments, some good some bad, mostly good IMPO. To think all of that governmental power is suddenly going to vanish is a "pipe" dream.

Just for Congress to get its greedy little hands on the uncollected taxes from poker alone means more regulation is inevitible IMPO. Every time Congress has identified a ready pool of money it thinks it can give to more votes than those that it would have to take it from, it has!

D$D

[Legislurker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? "

Based upon personal conversations with poker site owners, ANY site which could get a US license would do so.

....

"The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along."

Cactus, you really misunderstand politics and the public's social order.

Sadly, "People" are willing to "go along" with almost any regulation because they are willing to buy into fear of free markets.

I agree that Internet commerce is defintiely a cross-border phenomenon of common interests. However, you dismis too readily other social bonds and forces in your belief that commerce is all-powerful.

[/ QUOTE ]

While they may say they'll get a US license, what they actually do will be seen at a later date.

I agree with you, Milton, on the herd mentality and the fear of change, but I believe more in inevitable social evolution. Change happens whether we want it to or not. Just a couple of years ago, Internet shopping was considered a novelty. This year, it could make or break some companies who are prepared or not prepared for the Christmas shopping season.

It wasn't long ago that people had a very strong fear of computers. Now, they sell them like refrigerators. Those of us with computer knowledge are well aware they are still computers which don't work like a microwave or VCR.

The govt has never lead anything. The govt has always been behind every curve of change. The only way they can lead is by finding a parade and trying to get in front of it. Al Gore's claim of inventing the Internet is a great example. The parade was going strong by the time he got in front of it, too late, I might add, because by the time he said it everyone knew it was a joke.

I think there will be more sites, more options, more of everything by '09. Whether there will be another boom is a different question. People's attention spans are pretty short, and another pretty girl will walk by in a few seconds. I'm not worried at all whether I'll be able to play legally or not. I didn't drive 55, and I've been known to fire up a bowl on occasion. Like everyone else, it's up to me to decide which laws I'll support and am prepared to deal with the consequences of violating the law. Funny thing is, the lawmakers know it, while the general population doesn't. It's why the laws actually work.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that poker will go on. As long as net neutrality is in place and no lawmaker gets some crusade on over the internet. A boom again or no, all depends on an easy way to fund. The affiliate system is in place, tv advertizing is even more ramped up, and word of mouth is as strong as ever. I think a forgeign bank is going to have to win a case vs the DoJ or something. Make it easy to set up foreign accounts for people, and introduce them to tax avoidance 101.

[Skallagrim]

I dont agree that ALL regulation of internet poker is doomed to fail, it truly depends on the extent of the regulation. A system not too different from the one in the UK (the tax part is not transferable to the US market) is probably where we are going, and as long as it allows open foreign competition, it should be a great thing for poker because it will bring back the fish with open legality and easy funding.

Of course, a heavy handed, overly bureaucratic, high tax, high licensing scheme is one legislative possibility. If THAT were to occur, I agree with you CJ, the majority would go elsewhere so long as they can still fund it.

Skallagrim