Iggy's Week 4 NCAA Picks

[iggymcfly]

I kinda feel like I have too much analysis to clutter up a community thread, at least on the first game, so I decided to make my own thread this week despite having an absolutely terrible record in Week 3.

YTD: 16-22-1, -3.845 units


Oregon -16.5 at Stanford (Risk 2u to win 1.96u)
Feel a little nervous betting 2 units on the nationally ranked road dog that's facing the perennial loser who's projected to be improved this year. Just screams "square side". My other main concern is that Oregon will likely be overlooking Stanford somewhat in preparation for one of their biggest games of the year against Cal.

However, I still feel Oregon's undervalued here. They had a really fluky bad year last season where they outgained their opponents by more than anyone in the conference and still finished with a losing record coming off a 10-1 season and aren't getting recognition as fast as they should be.

They battered Michigan on the road by 32 points (who is still probably one of the 25 best teams in the country in all honesty) and then led a very good Fresno State team 42-14 at the half en route to a 52-21 win. Their other win wasn't quite as impressive, but they still covered the spread comfortably that game, beating Houston by 21. I have the Ducks as the #5 team in the country. (No computer numbers there, just personal analysis.)

Also, the matchups are wildly favorable for Oregon. Stanford is a passing team (89 pass att vs. 74 rush att) and will be passing even more when trailing against Oregon. Meanwhile, Oregon's defensive strength is their passing D as they rank 33rd in pass efficiency D compared to 77th in rushing defense. On the other side of the ball, Oregon much prefers to run (64 pass att vs. 147 rush att) and goes up against a rush defense that gave up 338 yards on the ground to UCLA. If you're looking for a baseline without matchups, Sagarin says UO should be favored by 17 on the road (a half point off the actual line).

Finally, UCLA is a really close comparison for Stanford as they are a similar team to Oregon (if not quite as good) and beat Stanford on the road by 28 as a 17 point favorite. The other close comparison is that last year, the Ducks beat Stanford by 38 at home. All things considered, without the "lookahead game" factor, I'd like the Ducks by 28 here. With that, I'll take off a TD, but I still think UO should be favored by ~21. A four and a half point difference crossing 3 key numbers seems to be pretty big so I like UO for 2 units.

[iggymcfly]

All right, I finally got this matched at a decent price:

Texas A&M at Miami -2.5 (Risk 1.54u to win 1.47u)
Basically, I do think A&M's a little better talent wise, but the matchups are really favorable for Miami as they have a very good run defense with an extremely vulnerable secondary and A&M loves to run the ball continuously. On the other side of the ball, A&M's run defense is ranked 67th (worse than their pass D), so I think that the Canes should be able to pound the ball even with their lack of a passing attack.

Also, from a 'fade the public' standpoint, everyone saw Miami get blown up by Oklahoma (by their passing game more specifically), and much fewer watched the Aggies nearly get beat by Fresno on FSN. Add in a little ranked dog vs. unranked favorite and I'm thinking the squares are all over A&M here. I really like Miami and I think there's solid value on this play.

[iggymcfly]

1-0, +1.47 units on the week. FTR, the reason the units end up funny a lot of the time is that a lot of the time I bet to win 1.5 units on Matchbook before taking the commission out and don't think to actually take it out until doing my writeup.

Here are some more picks:

South Carolina +18 at LSU
Kinda went through it in the other thread, but the gist of the analysis is that South Carolina is a very good team and even when they weren't as good last year, they never lost a game by more than 18 points. Sagarin ratings do have LSU favored by a ridiculous amount (32?!), but that's mainly due to one game where SC had half the team suspended and another sandwich game vs. a I-AA opponent when they weren't focused at all. The one real game (vs. Georgia), they looked every bit like the SEC title contender they appeared to be to start the season.

Also, South Carolina has historically played very well on the road as they're 13-4 ATS under Spurrier away from home including covers in their last 8 games. I don't think the hostile environment will affect them too much and I think they should be able to keep it within 2 TDs. Remember, LSU's only real wins this season were over a VT that's looked very mediocre vs. East Carolina and Ohio and against a Mississippi State team that could have kept it close if they hadn't lost the turnover battle 7-0.

Illinois at Indiana +3 (Risk 1.07u to win 1u)
Pure follow on MyTurn's POTW. Liked his analysis in the early lines thread.

I'm betting Toledo vs. ISU as well. Will put up analysis when I get my offer fully matched on Matchbook. Also, trying to take the GT/UVA under, but won't bet unless I get a decent price.

[johnnylovescandy]

Nice analysis, but I can't imagine Oregon being a value bet this week despite the numbers. Hope you've been betting the Ducks all season, because it seems strange to wait until now to jump on board. I think their mascot is out, too...

[iggymcfly]

Oops, somehow didn't put units on the South Carolina/LSU game. I'm risking 1.5 units to win 1.5 units.

And yes, I've been betting Oregon this season. Actually lost the first game as I took the 1st half line instead of the game line, thinking I was getting a better number there, and I bet them against Michigan as well. Didn't bet them against FSU because the number was fairly high and there were too many emotional issues to figure out properly where the game was likely to finish.

[iggymcfly]

Georgia Tech -156 at Virginia (Risk 1.54 units to win 0.96 units)

Gave the official Matchbook price first, and then converted afterwards. Sorry if this is a past-post officially as it's already 7-0 Jackets, but I just woke up and the Matchbook offer got taken while I was sleeping. I'll post a screenshot if anyone requests it.

Anyway, I think Georgia Tech's the better side here and I figured if I could get approximately the break-even price on Pinny, it was worth a play.

[iggymcfly]

Adding:

Maryland +3.5 at Wake Forest (Risk 1 unit to win 1.05 units)
I thought Maryland was better than Wake going into the season and the only thing holding me back was that Wake seemed to play well in a close loss to Nebraska. With Nebraska looking like garbage vs. Ball State and positive juice, I think Maryland's worth a play.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I didn't see anyone else posting here


just wanted to let you know that we are reading....good stuff as always...ty

[PropPlayer]

I'm with you on Maryland, and I was already convinced Nebraska was nothing special this year and they're out proving it right now.

[PropPlayer]

Actually I didn't read up far enough. I'm with you on South Carolina too. GL