Big enough edge to take?

[a nonymous]

Could anyone help me work through the process of figuring out whether or not an edge (a chip-equity edge) is big enough to take in a turbo sit&go? I already have the exact numbers for the problem, I just don't know how to "solve" it. I am more interested in the process of solving this type of problem than the answer to this specific problem. I am totally new to this and any advice would really help me out.

Blinds at 50/100. Player limps, player minraises, action is on hero. Hero has 1275. Hero is not in the blinds. Hero has two options:

A) Push and get called by minraiser who has him covered, everyone else folds. (So total pot 2800.) Hero's equity is 53.3%.

B) Fold.

9.09% rake for the sit&go. 3 places paid (9 players left, let me know if you need all of the stack sizes). Hero has a 10% ROI through a significant sample. Let me know if there's anything I'm leaving out/anything else that needs to be considered.

Thanks a lot.

[Slim Pickens]

payouts
stacks
number of players
blinds
your hand
opponents' hand ranges

rake and skill edge pretty much don't matter

learn the ICM and how SNGPT works

[a nonymous]

50%
30%
20%

Seat 1: 3485
Seat 2: 1245
Seat 3 (Hero): 1275
Seat 4 (SB): 922
Seat 5 (BB): 459
Seat 6: 1555 (limper)
Seat 7: 874
Seat 8: 1840
Seat 9: 1845 (minraiser)

Blinds 50/100. My hand is 53.3% against his hand here, that is the only information I provided intentionally/that is the question I'm asking, specific hand isn't relevant. Opponents' hand ranges also not relevant because the question I am asking isn't whether or not I should push in a "standard"
situation, it's whether or not I should push in the situation I described in my post (when my opponent IS calling, the other opponents ARE folding, and I am 53.3% to win against his precise hand). I am attempting to find out if I should be taking this type of edge. I don't know if it's profitable or not. And I don't know if it's profitable but not as profitable as waiting.

I will research ICM and SNGPT now, but I've looked at SNGPT before and didn't know/think I could plug in "I am getting called and have 53.3% equity." I need to be able to plug in exact %'s as specific hand vs. hand calculations aren't going to work for my purposes.

Thanks a lot for the help. Any further advice appreciated.

[Slim Pickens]

I think the only thing you're missing is how to translate chip stacks into tournament prize pool equity using the ICM.

[Slim Pickens]

I only mention the hand ranges because sometimes people come up with really silly hand ranges for their opponents.

[a nonymous]

[ QUOTE ]
I only mention the hand ranges because sometimes people come up with really silly hand ranges for their opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're suggesting that the situation I described never actually comes up, you don't have to be so polite, I know I'd be a fool to suggest it's ever so clear. However, I feel it will be of great benefit to me to understand the math.

If I simply adjust my stack size to 53.3% of the pot and adjust other stacks, will that reflect an accurate change in EV using the ICM Calculator, or do I need to do each potential outcome ("he wins __, he loses __, he splits __") to come up with my answer? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Thanks again, this is VERY helpful.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I only mention the hand ranges because sometimes people come up with really silly hand ranges for their opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're suggesting that the situation I described never actually comes up, you don't have to be so polite, I know I'd be a fool to suggest it's ever so clear. However, I feel it will be of great benefit to me to understand the math.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not uncommon for someone to post a hand where they put a random opponent at the $11's on a calling range of any two cards (or KK+) from the BB against their SB push. The absolute best SNG players are the best because they are the best at estimating opponents' push/call ranges, not because they're somehow better at the ICM-based math. That's always the first thing you should run by other people when trying to analyze a hand like this.



[ QUOTE ]
If I simply adjust my stack size to 53.3% of the pot and adjust other stacks, will that reflect an accurate change in EV using the ICM Calculator, or do I need to do each potential outcome ("he wins __, he loses __, he splits __") to come up with my answer? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to use each potential outcome. Basically, ICM results are highly non-linear to changes in the stacks.

[DownLow]

I think he was just looking for an example of ICM math, you don't see it too much anymore since everyone just uses SNGPT or SNGWiz to do the calcs. It has been a long time since I have done this, but I will give it a shot (real math people, please correct all the massive mistakes likely here)

Currently, you have 9.93% equity in the prize pool. If you call and win you'll have 19.70% equity in the prize pool. So you have the following possible outcomes (with no specific hands I can't say how often you'll chop):

Fold: 9.93%*100% = 9.93% equity
All in and win: 19.70%*53.3% = 10.5% equity
All in and lose: 0%*46.7% = 0% equity


So if you do go all in here, you will on average have slightly more equity in the tournament (10.5% vs 9.93%), mostly due to the dead money in the pot. What the ICM doesn't tell us is whether or not it is worth taking this slight equity edge when we might be passing up a larger edge later in the tournament. This can be dependent on many factors such as how much utility a larger stack has for you, how much you care about hourly rate, how well you play a short stack, what skill edge you have on your opponents, etc. In short, this all in would probably be an "it depends" situation specific to each player (and table).

(edited to fix incorrect number)