final table ducks from the sb dilemma

[Annulus]

9 players left at the final table. blinds 4k/8k, a-1k. i have 80K to begin the hand from the sb. i get dealt 22. the cutoff open pushes for ~27K, folded to me in SB. whats my play here? do i push and try to isolate and hope for a coin flip getting good odds? fold and move on? sorry no reads. fwiw i fell asleep for 20 mins during the middle stages of this tourney. lol.

Full Tilt Poker Game #1658109294: $12,000 Guarantee (11749927), Table 4 - 4000/8000 Ante 1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 5:26:06 ET - 2007/01/23
Seat 1: louloulou49 (76,936)
Seat 2: jeremygreat (39,954)
Seat 3: Transkilla (130,912)
Seat 4: icehockeynut (92,583)
Seat 5: sneeetz (134,592)
Seat 6: scooterman (27,870)
Seat 7: Michnak (156,869)
Seat 8: MrShimSham (80,404)
Seat 9: URDMIZE (138,880)
louloulou49 antes 1,000
jeremygreat antes 1,000
Transkilla antes 1,000
icehockeynut antes 1,000
sneeetz antes 1,000
scooterman antes 1,000
Michnak antes 1,000
MrShimSham antes 1,000
URDMIZE antes 1,000
MrShimSham posts the small blind of 4,000
URDMIZE posts the big blind of 8,000
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrShimSham [2s 2c]
louloulou49 has 15 seconds left to act
louloulou49 folds
jeremygreat folds
Transkilla folds
icehockeynut folds
sneeetz folds
scooterman raises to 26,870, and is all in
Michnak folds
MrShimSham has 15 seconds left to act

[omaha]

Interesting, these little duckies, arnt they?

If the raiser has overcards, and you shove, and fold out the bb, then effectively you are a coin flip, so you win half the blinds, ie 6k.

If he has a pair, then you will lose 80% of the time, ie pot is (12+27+27) =68k

You win 20%, lose 80%.

So, your ev= .2*68-27 = -13k

SO, overcards, you win 6k each hand, pair you lose 13k per hand.

Thus, if he has overcards double that % he has an overpair, you break even

I think he has oc a heap more than 2 times the pair, so i could consider shoving.

ps i have assumed bb folds, but this is not always the case!

Please correct my maths if i am wrong

[BadgerPro]

I fold this as you're at best a coinflip here and it's a pretty decent amount of your stack.

I think the risk/reward isn't worth it. You have very good FE against any of the other players with your current stack as it's more than 50% of anyones stack. If you call and lose there are 4 players that can call you and not have to risk their tournament.

Also, calling and winning doesn't really give you a huge boost and put you in a much better position IMO.

[Annulus]

thanks guys for the response. these kind of spots really give me trouble. and im not sure im looking at it correctly. obviously, the cutoff has a HUGE range here and most of the time we are flipping. so i figured with ~48,000 in the pot and I need to only call ~24,000 getting 2 to 1 on a coin flip is very enticing. that is if the BB does not wake up with a hand.

i ended up pushing and unfortunatly got insta-called by the BB who had JJ. cut-off had AK. obviously the results mean nothing. i main goal is to learn how to play this situation correctly. if i was the BB instead and the same scenario with the cutoff open pushing here, now what do you do?

[omaha]

If in bb, you need to call 18k to win 38. I would call this in a semi fraction of a tiny heartbeat

[shaundeeb]

easy iso see gigabets block theory, if you win this pot which you should about 45-50% of the time you now have a good stack for restealing and doing other very solid +EV moves. When at 10bbs I try to find spots to get to 15 and when at 15 try to get to 20 etc. Just because it's final table don't forget about accum, esp when short.

[Annulus]

thanks for responding shaundeeb. i think this hand is pretty interesting and worthy of some more discussion. i also at the time thought it was an easy isolation play. final tables with high blinds and not lots of plays means accumulation is a must or else you will blind out. hopefully i will get some more input from other expierienced players to see if they think pushing or folding is the better play here.