Dancing With the Stars 5

[stereoman]

Whatever it is you're doing to come up with these conclusions darko, it's working...

Week 6 - Judges' Scores:

30 -- Mel & Maks
28 -- Helio & Julianne
27 -- Jennie & Derek
25 -- Sabrina & Mark, Cameron & Edyta
23 -- Marie & Jonathon
22 -- Jane & Tony

Coinflip as to who goes tomorrow between Jane and Marie but one would favour Jane getting the boot (probably, one can't imagine that ABC will dismiss their two horses of Cameron and Sabrina at this stage).

Mark Cuban thinks Cameron's going to win. I think he's thinking of the ABC angle.

[llabb]

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Coinflip as to who goes tomorrow between Jane and Marie but one would favour Jane getting the boot

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Could have said the same thing last week, but it was quite the shocker.

If you or anyone wants to back up their opinions, Matchbook has odds up on both who will win and who will get eliminated this week.

[stereoman]

Yeah, yeah I got it wrong. Few people would have said Sabrina was going to be eliminated and for money.

I generally don't follow the odds on Matchbook but was there any odds movement last week on Sabrina being eliminated?

Just looking at the odds on who'll be eliminated this week and they're kinda stingy:

Will Helio be eliminated? Yes +1000, No n/a
Will Cameron be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -800
Will Marie be eliminated? Yes +200, No n/a
Will Jane be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -280
Will Melanie be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -800
Will Jennie be eliminated? Yes +400, No -1000

Ugh. I have no interest in betting or setting the odds at Matchbook even if the lines right now are goading me into thinking Jane's being set up to be eliminated this week.

You'd have to be a fan, an insider or someone who hates money to bet money on the eliminations.

[llabb]

Oh, for sure. Wasn't ragging on you about last week at all. No one serious anywhere was predicting Sabrina to go last week, including myself. Have had my share of hits and misses this season also.

But I disagree about Matchbook and the eliminations. There is money to be made there, it's just not a big market until show-day.

Those odds are simply a couple people's offers. By show-time Mon and Tues, there should be a lot more offers and better odds.

And if people think that Marie and Jane are a near coinflip to go, then they would be near +/-100 to go. You can get Marie for +200. That's a lot of room for edge/error already. Taking a near 50% prop (if that's your estimate) and getting an edge all the way down to 33%, a 17% margin for error.

[darko3131]

Man I wish I could play at matchbook, I mop up on any reality shows. I refuse to deposit into an online sportsbook though, anyone know how I can get a couple of bucks on there maybe with a promo code or anything?

Just wanted to weigh in on the Sabrina elimination. I actually wasn't shocked she went. It was no secret her scores were carrying her, so scoring a 25 was trouble. I thought for sure the bottom 2 would have been Jane and Sabrina with Jane being the boot though. Oh well, the old food poisoning trick won't save the old bag this week hopefully- because I didn't envision my money being tied up for 2 weeks.

[thing85]

lol...Bodog has Helio to win at +100 and male to win at +130.

[darko3131]

Word is that Helio's phone line didn't work for a good 10-15 minutes last night. Since voting is only open for what 30-60 minutes? that can't be good. This Jane lady is pretty good, she fakes food poisioning one week to take out Sabrina, now she's jamming phone lines in an attempt to take out Helio, what's next taking a lead pipe to Mel's knee [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I don't watch on Monday's so I'm not sure how the scores were but Jane is bottom 2 this week, who joins her is a ? between Cameron, Mel, and hate to say it Helio.