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  #1  
Old 05-08-2005, 05:02 PM
SoBeDude SoBeDude is offline
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Location: South Beach!!!
Posts: 3,231
Default Re: DERB

[ QUOTE ]
I can see what you're saying, but I think being stuck 4k after 56k hands is a bit different from making 3bb/100 over 145k. From reading your posts to date, I'd be willing to bet it turns around for you, and probably soon.

As for the dude, either a.) this is a very rare statistical anomoly, b.) there is some form of collusion happening, or c.) he is a world-class player, so good that he can make hands profitable that the VAST majority of other players could not

This is real interesting - Jags

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine being stuck any after 56K hands in this game.

-Scott
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  #2  
Old 05-03-2005, 12:19 AM
mmcd mmcd is offline
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Default Re: DERB

VIP 30 - R 17 - NF 21 - ag 2.0

For the computer saavy, is this feasible?

Intuitively, it seems to me that these numbers would be somewhere near optimal if you could actually see your opponents' cards. The random ATo caps and whatnot are obviously horrible, but perhaps some the stuff like that is just provide part of a general cover of donkishness. I don't know [censored] about computers, but I think the sites are pretty damn secure, but what about hacking into other player's computers and just watching their screens. I'm sure some players will have enough security to make this difficult, but many probably will not.
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  #3  
Old 05-03-2005, 12:21 AM
JAA JAA is offline
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Default Re: DERB

An aggression factor of 2 with a VPIP of 30 is ridiculous. There has to be something up here. That would be like a dude with VPIP 17 having an aggression factor of like 3+. (no math behind that, but you get my point)

- Jags
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  #4  
Old 05-03-2005, 12:48 AM
Senor Choppy Senor Choppy is offline
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Default Re: DERB

I'd love to see a full rundown of his PT stats, like blind defense numbers, VPIP through various positions, etc.

Posting individual hands might also be enlightening.
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  #5  
Old 05-03-2005, 01:28 AM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Spewin them chips
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Default Re: DERB

[ QUOTE ]
I'd love to see a full rundown of his PT stats, like blind defense numbers, VPIP through various positions, etc.

Posting individual hands might also be enlightening.

[/ QUOTE ]

vpip 30
pfr 17
ag 2.0
nf 21
fold sb- 70
fold bb- 30
fold bb HU- 24
WSD- 41
W$SD- 50
when fold turn- 3
when fold river- 3
c'r- 3
won $: $145k
win rate: 3bb/100

all i can say is jesus effing christ.

-Barron
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  #6  
Old 05-03-2005, 10:43 AM
AviD AviD is offline
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Default Re: DERB

What's his W$WSF?
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  #7  
Old 05-03-2005, 04:21 PM
UprightCreature UprightCreature is offline
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Default Re: DERB

Does anyone know from their PT DB what his Sigma/100 hands is? It has to be higher than what most of us are used to.

Since I don't have the data I can't do any serious analysis, but we can wait for Cypher for that.

Just for the fun of it I calculated the probability of a break even player running this well or better over 80k hands.
Assuming 80k hands and a winrate of 3BB/100:
Sigma/100 ---- Probability
15 ----------- 7.7e-9
20 ----------- 1.1e-5
25 ----------- 3.4e-4
30 ----------- 2.3e-3
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  #8  
Old 05-03-2005, 04:29 PM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Spewin them chips
Posts: 10,115
Default Re: DERB

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know from their PT DB what his Sigma/100 hands is? It has to be higher than what most of us are used to.

Since I don't have the data I can't do any serious analysis, but we can wait for Cypher for that.

Just for the fun of it I calculated the probability of a break even player running this well or better over 80k hands.
Assuming 80k hands and a winrate of 3BB/100:
Sigma/100 ---- Probability
15 ----------- 7.7e-9
20 ----------- 1.1e-5
25 ----------- 3.4e-4
30 ----------- 2.3e-3

[/ QUOTE ]

so for all intents and purposes, even the high STDEV #s are 0% probability (.0023 is still pretty damn close to 0 and i dont even think he plays enough hands and is crazy enough to have a 30bb/100 st.dev...thats just hard to accomplish given the # of hands he plays. HOWEVER< it may make sense because the curve of st.dev (y) to # hands played aggressively (x) would look something like a less extreme right hand side of a parabola...something like y=.5*x^2. this is the case because of the incremental addition of each hand would add less to your variance if you are playing few hands because you're just not playing enough hands to even have a variance...but as you play more and more hands, each addition hand will add proportionally more to your variance than if you were playing fewer hands because NOW you're playing so many hands that the probability of being up or down large amounts increases substantially....)

well, ok, i've now convinced myself that he may actually have a st.dev well over 30bb/100...thats a huge st.dev....but it makes the probability of him running well fall within "reasonable" limits.

-Barron
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  #9  
Old 05-03-2005, 04:31 PM
AviD AviD is offline
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Default Re: DERB

I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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  #10  
Old 05-03-2005, 01:06 PM
Jay. Jay. is offline
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: Leeds, uk
Posts: 6,621
Default Re: DERB

[ QUOTE ]

Posting individual hands might also be enlightening.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm bored enough:

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Ah Kh (high card, ace).
Button has Ac Qh (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins 10.50 BB. </font>

BB is our idiot.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Ah Jc (two pair, aces and threes).
MP2 has Ad Qd (two pair, aces and threes).
Outcome: MP2 wins 13.75 BB. </font>

Idiot is UTG

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, UTG calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG has Tc As (one pair, aces).
MP2 has Kc Ah (one pair, aces).
Outcome: MP2 wins 13.75 BB. </font>

Idiot is MP3

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Converter error, he calls the river HU.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Ah Ad (one pair, aces).
UTG doesn't show.
MP1 doesn't show.
MP3 has As Kh (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins 14.25 BB. </font>

There are tons of worse hands, then his raises UTG with 33 A5s etc, and i'm sure he doesn't win. He's the 1/1000 case, the rare disease, the lotto winner.

FWIW re: cheating, there are two other players who play the game reg with the same location as him but i doubt 1. they cheat since they play so different 2. our donkey is a donkey all the time and 3. they get accused of being cheats by every railbird on the site every single day.
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