heads up SNG - question i have been thinking about

[ukdentisto32]

most of us probably use sharkscope, if not all of us. so here is the question. the very first hand of a heads up sng, and u have ZERO play-based reads on the guy, u raise with A9s in position, the flop is AKJ with a flush draw (you dont have the flush draw), you bet the 3/4 pot and:

A) the guy with the VERY GOOD sharkscope stats shoves, u fold? call?

B) the guy with the VERY POOR sharkscope stats shoves, u call? fold?

also, would your decision change if you had AT? i know the guy with very good stats prob wouldnt shove this, BUT, just assume he does...

[ChicagoRy]

I've played a fair amount of top winners in 110s that shove these flops with plenty of hands we're ahead of here. Also obviously hands we're behind, so I don't have much of a problem assuming this.

As for your question, let me get back to you.

[TNixon]

A) I call, cause he's probably better than me, and I feel runner-runner 9s coming.

B) I call, because he's got JT/KT/KQ/JQ or A3-A5 ("I have a pair! And I just *KNOW* he's betting a draw, so I'm not going to let him get there") almost all the time, and sometimes even just random Kx or Q/Tx. Also, he's almost certainly going to at least reraise preflop, if not just push, with at least two-thirds of the hands that have us beat. If he shows me QT, or a monster pair+flush+straight draw, then I feel like a donk for a few minutes, and get over it, knowing I'm going to have him drawing slim a big percentage of the time.

A is actually a damn tough decision, because most good players would not shove this flop first hand no matter what they had. If player A actually does push this flop, I think his most likely holding is going to be a pair and a flush draw, maybe even with a gutshot to go with it. Except for KJ, two pair is very unlikely, sets are practically impossible, and QT is very rarely going to shove.

I would probably be most likely to fold A, but I'm definitely calling B.

And having AT doesn't change my decision, except by making me a little more likely to call A.


***edit***

Btw, the reason I lean towards folding A, even though I think his most likely holding is one that I have correct odds to call against (not that odds matter a ton when your tournament life is on the line), is that KJ and QT are very much in his range as well. KJ is more likely to push than QT, but even with the straight, he could be overbetting to induce a call from a hand just like mine, while pricing out would-be counterfeiters and flushers. This is actually a pretty scary board for a straight. There are quite a few cards that could come that would make you just want to puke. Because although *he* isn't likely to have two pair or a set, I could very easily have either. I still don't think QT is going to shove normally (because shoving only gets called by the hands that have 4-12 outs to beat or split with you, and gets rid of everybody else), but if he thinks I caught fairly strong on this board, he might.

His range also includes some number of bluffs, but without any sort of history with the player, it's impossible to even guess at how often he might be bluffing here.

[TNixon]

Btw, if any of my thinking in the above post is severely off, PLEASE don't hesitate to call me out as the donk I really am, and set me straight. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[daveT]

The bad player would be insta-call.

The good player would see your shark-stats and be able to make assumptions about your play. He would realize (???) that you would not call lightly here.

This is a mind * btw.

[jay_shark]

I'm more inclined to fold versus the good player and call versus the bad player .