Top pair turn fold heads up

[cartman]

I think a once a passive opponent 3-bets the flop on this board he has top pair (including slowplayed overpairs) or better at least 80% of the time (maybe as high as 90%), a flush or straight draw 10% to 15% of the time and maybe some stray pair or spastic bluff 5% or less. Once the spade hit the turn this was a very clear fold in my opinion. I think a very tough decision would have been whether to call the river if he bet all three streets and a spade didn't fall.

Have I lost my mind?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Bond18]

Spy dog, im a big fan of the c/c, c/c, lead but do im not sure we have the right player here. His .7 agg rating means a much higher chance of him checking behind the flop or turn when he'd be calling our bets. If he was PF raiser then i like your idea a lot.

In this case cartman i like donking the turn and folding to a raise. You reduce the risk of him taking a free card on one spade, extract value from 2nd apir, spend the same amount if hes already out kicking you but can't raise, and if he raises you know your dead.

If he calls lead non spade river.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
Have I lost my mind?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. I think this is a good fold. I think with no spade and him firing on the river you call fairly easily absent some other compelling board situation or some better read.