J9s on the river

[brazilio]

I mean he won't have a draw 100% of the time, and when he does have a draw 100% of the time it won't be two overcards + flush draw/straight draw every time, but isn't this really expensive for almost no equity, especially if he'll possibly cap for a free card?

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you entertain the idea of 3-betting to try and isolate what is possibly a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would entertain it but usually decide against it because, in my experience, the presence of the flop caller in the pot makes it more likely than normal that BB's hand is a pair or better instead of a draw. But I thought it entirely possible that the preflop raiser was doing exactly what you described with a big Ace or even with his own draw. That fact combined with the fact that I was getting a pretty good price to try to improve on the river was the reason for my turn call. The pivotal decision in this hand in my opinion was whether to call or fold on the river. I folded because I thought it very likely that if he had taken his actions to that point with Ace high or a draw that he would have checked behind on the river.

What do you think?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Surf]

Cartman,

If he's going to take that line with a draw, he may well bet it on the river to fold out a smallish pair or other draw. Sometimes he'll bet A-hi(not that it makes any sense to bet it) too.

Surf

edit: Again, we may be giving too much credit to our opponent. The "oh, it's hopeless for him to bluff here after i call 2 streets" idea doesn't stop them from doing it.

[StellarWind]

I would just call the flop and await developments. All you have is MPFK on quite a dangerous board. You don't have the pot equity for a checkraise and there is also a tactical advantage in leaving MP with the initiative because you will act last on the turn.

The turn card creates a trips hazard (it happens, A5 is possible here), creates a second flush draw, and fries some of your outs versus an overpair. I doubt it's worth 2 BB to show this down.

It would be inconsistent to fold the river. You burned this bridge when you called the turn with two outs.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]

It would be inconsistent to fold the river. You burned this bridge when you called the turn with two outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this but at the same time that Q smacks hit hand range pretty hard. If he 3 bets with KQ or AQ they just made a pair and the JQ draw also got hit.

I don't call the turn but I'm not 100% sure how bad that river fold is.

[redbeard]

i think the river is a fold. the turn call is a pretty difficult decision. if you think he has an overpair you are pretty screwed. if you think he has a flush draw is it ace high with a ten? if so you should fold. if you think he has a straight draw with qj then the turn call is great. maybe he has kq diamonds. what ever the case may be i just cant make a case for calling the river bet given his flop three bet. in fact, i think i probably would have folded the turn. but you are a better player than i so i'm sure your reasoning for the turn call may very well be correct and my above reasons for folding wrong.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]

It would be inconsistent to fold the river. You burned this bridge when you called the turn with two outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't calling for the sole purpose of hitting my two outer. The primary reason for my turn call was to win the pot when he checks behind me on the river with worse hands. I was confident from earlier play between us that this guy wouldn't fire a third barrel here with a hand worse than mine.

For example, lets say that I do have 2 outs when behind. Even if he has 10 outs when I'm ahead, if he never bluffs the river then...

When I'm in front:

10/46 He rivers me and I fold (-1 BB)
36/46 He checks behind and I win (+7.75 BB)


When I'm behind:

2/46 I river him and I win (+8.75 BB))
44/46 I don't improve and fold (-1 BB)


Then if A = the probability that I am ahead on the turn....

EV = A*[(36/46*7.75) + (10/46*-1)] + (1-A)*[(2/46*8.75) + (44/46*-1)]
0 = 5.85A + .576A - .576
A = .0896


So under those assumptions I have to be ahead on the turn around 9% of the time to make calling and folding unimproved if he bets the river +EV.

[Surf]

Cartman,

I don't think it is safe to assume that he will never fire a 3rd barrel with a worse hand.

Surf

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
Cartman,

I don't think it is safe to assume that he will never fire a 3rd barrel with a worse hand.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]


Against most players I agree, but this guy had checked behind on the river repeatedly with his Ace high and busted draw type hands as well as giving up on the turn heads up and folding to a river bet a few times after raising preflop. That history made me feel like I could trust him more. Also, although I agree that assumption was optimistic, the assumption that he has 10 outs when behind is very pessimistic. The calculation that I presented above is anything but solid and you guys may be right, I was just attempting to demonstrate that the turn and river bet are separate decisions here and that calling the turn in no way makes calling the river imperative. Also, the willingness to fold the river if he fires again does not by definition make the turn call incorrect. This players hand range changes dramatically when he makes that river bet.

[Schizo]

Interesting post cartman,

Lets say he bets 10% of the time on the river when he doesn't improve. SO this:


10/46 He rivers me and I fold (-1 BB)
36/46 He checks behind and I win (+7.75 BB)


turns into


14/46 He rivers me and I fold (-1 BB)
32/46 He checks behind and I win (+7.75 BB)





EV = A*[(32/46*7.75) + (14/46*-1)] + (1-A)*[(2/46*8.75) + (44/46*-1)]

EV = A*(5.39+ -0.3) + ......

0 = 5.08A + .576A - .576
0 = 5.656A - .576
A = 0.10

Not much of a difference

Lets say he bets 25% of the time he whiffs on the river:


EV = A*[(27/46*7.75) + (19/46*-1)] + (1-A)*[(2/46*8.75) + (44/46*-1)]

EV = A*(4.54+ -0.41) + ......
EV = 4.13A +.576A - .576
A = 0.122


Odd.... it's like we have a huge buffer. That doesn't seem right. Ugh... I've been up all night so maybe I made a mistake but I can't find one.