3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board

[soah]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $582.75
BB: $200.00
UTG: $768.65
UTG+1: $1,384.90
MP1: $498.20
MP2: $745.05
CO: $606.00
BTN: $564.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 Players)
4 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $18.00</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $15.00, BB folds

Flop: ($42) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $35.00</font>, CO calls $35.00

Turn: ($112) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $92.00</font>, CO calls $92.00

River: ($296) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)


From previous sessions I have stats on this guy as 12/5 over 400 hands. I have no notes on him nor do I remember him at all. Hard to know what he knows about my play, but it's unlikely that he has any reason to believe that I'd be getting way out of line here.

[Keyser112]

i'm just a lowly NL 50 player but looking at this hand I still believe that you are ahead. my first thought was that on flop he had a draw, possibly QTs with lots of outs. had he flopped a set on the flop would villain not raise here in case he thought you had a big draw? the turn cold call is weaker IMO, as again if he had a set or a hand bigger than yours wouldn't a raise be in order?

if he did flop a set, or river a flush or straight I think you have to value bet here because villain would have played it horribly.

just my thoughts for what it is worth.

[novel20]

"if he did flop a set, or river a flush or straight I think you have to value bet here because villain would have played it horribly."

What? You mean bring yourself to valuetown?

[Specialwon]

I too am a lowly NL50, but I'll never get any wiser unless I practice.

12/5 in the CO, he is still mostly with the premiums, so big aces are like half of his range here. Given that, and the board, a flush seems unlikely and there is only AT or TT for the str8.

Actually we look much more likely for the flush or straight, I think I betfold here for around half the pot, can't see him raising with anything but the best and I'd be too worried about losing value to check call, plenty of 2 pair hands he can have that would just check behind otherwise.

Edit: pokerstoving him with a 10% PFR range (to allow for he is in the cutoff) your villain is a 3/2 dog. So, you can put him on an even wider range and still be fairly happy getting your money in.

Also, if you give villain any credit at all, maybe 1/2 pot bet will look too much like "aha, he is bet fold", so maybe a little more, say 180.

[FireStorm]

You want to valuebet here against a higher set or straight? Intriguing.

Check this river, and dependent on bet size, call. You could actually fold here to any reasonable sized bet. Higher sets abound and diamond draws that include a T are easily possible.

[Specialwon]

Call me old fashioned, but it's traditional for higher sets to raise at some point, partic. on a drawy board. It's not a straight very often at all imo.

[justscott]

Check the river.

[notfreemoney]

im voting to check river and call a decent size bet. I dont see any value in trying to block the river.

[Mike Kelley]

I think you have about 52% Equity in a 50bb pot. So what's your move? He probably doesn't have QTs or QTo in this situation, as 12/5 is a little tight to be playing that from the cut off. I also think TT folds the flop or the turn.

Board: 5h Jd Kd Qh Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.923% 51.92% 00.00% 27 0.00 { 5c5d }
Hand 1: 48.077% 48.08% 00.00% 25 0.00 { JJ+, AKs, AdQd, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }

[GrandMelon]

meh spot

I cant see a 12/5 having Tx and you would think hed raise a set on the flop or at least the turn. The hand Id be worried about the most is a scared AA but I think the he shows up with some broadway 2 pair combo more often to make a value bet profitable. I doubt he value bets worse here so c/c seems meh. I vote b/f for 165.