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#1
09-05-2007, 07:43 AM
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Warning from CNN on financial markets
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#2
09-05-2007, 07:50 AM
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Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets
Couldn't agree more with this reporting.
Find it very hard to believe that many still believe this housing crunch is coming to an end shortly.......fall from it in my opinion.
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#4
09-05-2007, 09:33 AM
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Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Find it very hard to believe that many still believe this housing crunch is coming to an end shortly....... [/ QUOTE ] Talk to Copernicus [/ QUOTE ] Who is that and what is his or her belief?
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#5
09-05-2007, 09:33 AM
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Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets
[ QUOTE ]
Couldn't agree more with this reporting. Find it very hard to believe that many still believe this housing crunch is coming to an end shortly.......fall from it in my opinion. [/ QUOTE ] Thing is, most people look for news that agrees with their opinions and biases. Financial journalism is only of use to try and guage the current feelings of the weaker hands in the market - which at the moment is probably very nervous. I sold some of my long positions when I posted this thread (the charts are now obv. outof date) based on some basic analysis. And then continued to unwind the following week. I don't have access to shorting at the moment. At the end of August I started to re-invest - but only in the Asia/Pacific region. I'm probably a little better in the black for it, but not enough to be worth the bother. I'll be prepared for the next break and any subsequent prolonged decline. You need to use your own data and not the opinions and fear-mongering of journalists. (DISCLAIMER: no flaming for taking fishead seriously, and let's keep IOWA out of this thread (for now [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]))
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#6
09-05-2007, 10:39 AM
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Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Find it very hard to believe that many still believe this housing crunch is coming to an end shortly....... [/ QUOTE ] Talk to Copernicus [/ QUOTE ] Who is that and what is his or her belief? [/ QUOTE ] He's a long time poster. In a recent debate with him he made comments along these lines... [ QUOTE ] the level of defaults that have actually occurred is miniscule with regard to the total mortgage market. The reaction to date has been way overblown. [/ QUOTE ] In response to my comment "What invited the speculators were overtly and artificially low interest rates": [ QUOTE ] no, demand and low interest rates resulting from a non-inflationary economy invited the speculators [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] . Maybe if I capitalize it you will understand better. THE CURRENT RATE OF SUB-PRIME DEFAULTS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN HISTORICAL STANDARDS FOR PRIMARY RESIDENCES. THE DEFAULTS ARE PRIMARILY FROM SPECULATORS WHO GOT INTO THE MARKET TOO LATE AND TOO THINLY CAPITALIZED. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] there is no reason for the current level of panic. [/ QUOTE ] Full comments can all be found in this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...part=1&vc=1
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#7
09-05-2007, 12:00 PM
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Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets
Well, most knowledgable analysts/PMs feel this way and knew this stuff (epsecially inflated margins) over the past year. The reason you don't hear them say it publically through a major source (WSJ, CNBC, etc.), though, is because they don't want their comments serving as a catalyst to a market dropoff.
And anyone saying the mortgage mess isn't too big of a problem on a historical basis should probably just stick their money in index funds and leave it there.
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#8
09-05-2007, 12:19 PM
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Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets
well the residential housing numbers that just came out (pending home sales drop to lowest level in years) is pretty clear evidence that we are not at the bottom, but commercial projects have been unaffected based on july data. Yet commecial builders and backers are getting killed almost as much as residential builders. Presents interesting opportunities for those who dont believe the sky is falling on the entire economy.
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#9
09-05-2007, 12:24 PM
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Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets
This isn't a "CNN Warning" it's from Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy Grantham is a very smart guy who has been bearish his whole life, so eventually he's going to be right, but the problem is figuring out when. He's a stopped clock.
But clearly Jeremy is at least partially right here. The resets on the bubble era 2 year arms is going to force even more housing inventory on the market which isn't going to be good for housing prices. My guess is the correction has one or two more years left.
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#10
09-05-2007, 03:23 PM
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Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets
[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a "CNN Warning" it's from Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy Grantham is a very smart guy who has been bearish his whole life, so eventually he's going to be right, but the problem is figuring out when. He's a stopped clock. But clearly Jeremy is at least partially right here. The resets on the bubble era 2 year arms is going to force even more housing inventory on the market which isn't going to be good for housing prices. My guess is the correction has one or two more years left. [/ QUOTE ] Agree, things will not begin to turn for the better for at least 1.5 years.
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