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  #11  
Old 02-12-2007, 04:43 AM
PoppinFresh PoppinFresh is offline
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Default Re: Beating the Game

Don't worry about either of these for the timebeing, just play your best and work on improving.

Thinking about the huge sample sizes you need for these is just going to discourage you. Keep good records and you'll naturally get to a point where you will know that you're beating the game and have a large enough sample to start trying to estimate a winrate.
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  #12  
Old 02-12-2007, 05:12 AM
DJ Sensei DJ Sensei is offline
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Default Re: Beating the Game

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry if this is the wrong forum, mods please move if thats the case. I picked middle stakes NLHE because I'm mostly talking about 2/5 NL live.. Where should this have gone?

If Arturius' rule is all there is to it, then I have no worries whatsoever, but I just wanted to make sure that I wasn't getting overly confident too early. I pretty much know I'm better than basically everyone in my local club's game, I just wanted to find out if there was a general consensus as to how many hours I had to put in to really be able to evaluate my results.

I'll rephrase then: do I really need 100k hands to be able to estimate my win rate? Since I'm talking live, that's only going to work out to about 3,534,715 hours (I know its more like 3,000, but you get my point).

[/ QUOTE ]

be careful with those online games, i hear theyre rigged so the bad players win and keep paying rake
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  #13  
Old 02-12-2007, 05:30 AM
minnesotasam minnesotasam is offline
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Default Re: Beating the Game

Actually everyone who plays online is a money-laundering terrorist.. Duh.

I agree with you, PoppinFresh, that working on my game and focussing on playing well are the most important things, but I don't think that increasing my overall knowledge of the statistical elements of poker/variance is going to discourage me at all. I actually think it will (if anything, in all likelihood it will probably do nothing) encourage me to maintain a high level of play so that I can ultimately look at those records as good ole fashioned +EV play.

In all seriousness, two things still:
1) Is the consensus 30k-100k hands?
2) Sensei, is your post just a general crack about losing online players, a 2p2 inside joke, or a vague reference to my play? Only in the latter of the three do I feel a need to defend myself, otherwise I can just chalk it up in the "FGators" column [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .

PS 2p2 newbie =/= poker newbie..
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  #14  
Old 02-12-2007, 05:44 AM
DJ Sensei DJ Sensei is offline
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Default Re: Beating the Game

nah i dont mean any disrespect, i dont know anything about how you play.

it was just that your comment about beating all of the people in your local 2/5 game seems just like what somebody might say before they play online for the first time, and play the same stakes assuming they can beat it, and then is smoked by better players or overcome by short-term quickly realized variance.

so, half inside joke and half words of caution, depending on where your game actually stands.
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  #15  
Old 02-12-2007, 06:00 AM
minnesotasam minnesotasam is offline
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Default Re: Beating the Game

No worries man, I understand. I actually went the opposite route, starting online (I was underage) and transitioning more toward live play recently, for a variety of reasons (improved access to games, the fact that live players are exponentially worse than online ones, general preference from a social perspective, getting reamed by NETeller/the Gov't to name a few)..

I agree with the common knowledge that comparing 2/5 live to 400 or 600NL is ridiculous and that 2/5 NL plays probably like 50NL online, and 1/2 probably plays like 10NL.

Sorry if I was touchy, sorta tough to get a feel for 2p2 w/ a million veterans who more or less all know each other..

Correct if I'm wrong, but haven't the MSNL games become a lot tougher online in the past 2 weeks? Just curious..
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  #16  
Old 02-12-2007, 06:33 AM
DJ Sensei DJ Sensei is offline
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Default Re: Beating the Game

but haven't the MSNL games become a lot tougher online in the past 2 weeks?

theyve been getting tougher for a long time now, and will continue to do so. until some new fish-market breaks loose AKA europe and then later, asia. asians love to gamble.
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  #17  
Old 02-12-2007, 07:03 AM
minnesotasam minnesotasam is offline
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Default Re: Beating the Game

Yeah, that's definitely a part of the reason that I'm starting to transition to live.. I go to school in Philly and there a few underground clubs that are readily accessible 4-5 days/wk and AC is like 45-60 mins away. Its disgusting how soft these games are. With games getting tougher across the board, I find that the reduction in edge makes it tougher to justify putting more time into online when the stakes are so much higher relative to the skill level live..
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  #18  
Old 02-12-2007, 07:24 AM
Kilillan Kilillan is offline
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Default Re: Beating the Game

[ QUOTE ]
but haven't the MSNL games become a lot tougher online in the past 2 weeks?

theyve been getting tougher for a long time now, and will continue to do so. until some new fish-market breaks loose AKA europe and then later, asia. asians love to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

When china comes into the mix... ohhhhh yeahhh
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  #19  
Old 02-12-2007, 09:39 AM
ArturiusX ArturiusX is offline
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Default Re: Beating the Game

I heard off a very good sources that Asian's will not be interested in poker, no matter how much marketing takes place. So don't count on it guys.
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