Super Bowl Line

[m bozeman]

O.K., not easiest pick ever; however I feel very confident in the pick. This game could easily be a 3 TD victory. The two main reasons; Manning having 2 weeks to prepare against the Bears weak secondary; and Grossman not being able to throw against the Colts secondary (see Bob Sanders). Colts 31-20, or maybe by more.

[iggymcfly]

I'm on the Bears at +7 (-115). Not a terrible line when Bodog's the only place I've got money. It's my largest wager ever in terms of money, ($3450), but that doesn't really mean much since I've been running insanely hot playing poker lately,. While I do have an edge here, I don't think it's very large at all.

Anyway, this is probably going to be the last real handicapping I do for a while as I can't stand getting raped by Bodog's awful lines, and don't really feel like putting in the effort to spread my money around right now.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Perf, those are good points about KC.
For the regular season-
NE ranks higher in Offense than Chi in pass yds, rush yds, first downs, 3rd down%.
Same for KC in all categories but passing.
Balt less at rush yds but better at pass yds, and 3rd downs.
Chi has also committed more penalties than all of them, and worse TOP than all of them but KC.

Then there's the Grossman factor. Yeah, he took them to the SB, but he's a young/inexperienced NFL QB. Similar SB QB's at this point in his career would be Ferragamo, Marino, Ben Roeth, Brady, Reich off the top of my head.

Brady had 145yds passing, Ben was 9-21 with 2 picks, and the other 3 were blowouts. Again, of course Chi can win, but young QBs don't tend to do so well and if Indy gets to put 8 in the box all day, that bodes poorly for CHI's RBs.
5 data points does not a conclusion make, just something I was mulling over.

[/ QUOTE ]

QF ROT MFT.

[m bozeman]

Self congratulating post; game went just as I had predicted (see above), and I even almost nailed the score dead on. Won a smooth grand, also.

Congrats Colts, especially Tony Dungy.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why people assume the Def playcalling in Sept is exactly the same as Jan/Feb, and the SB with an extra week to prepare. Belicheck's supposedly a 'genius' for his pre- and intra-game scheming, Reid has a tremendous record with a week off, aren't good coaches supposed to be able to adapt and improve?
When NE won in 2001 and 2003 after starting out with a couple losses, they sure used different schemes come January and the playoffs.

If Chi rushes for <125 yds, is it still a coincidence? Just wondering.

[/ QUOTE ]

One decent run or it would have been <65 yds.

[paperchamp]

So what's everyones thoughts on the line post-game? I still think 7 was probably about right and would still be the number if this game was played again. I think that the Colts ML at -200 was probably the best value.

[NajdorfDefense]

Well, my original post in this thread was -6.5, and it ended at -6.5, so I'll stick with that.

The clear value was Colts ML at -200 after falling from -260.

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, my original post in this thread was -6.5, and it ended at -6.5, so I'll stick with that.

The clear value was Colts ML at -200 after falling from -260.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not according to Fezzik, he is sticking to his guns that +7.5 was the right play.

[Phanekim]

[ QUOTE ]
Super Bowls tend to be blowouts mainly cause its last game and all teams don't hold anything back.

Colts are better than the Bears by a lot. Both teams run the cover 2. Peyton should be familiar with this scheme. Bears running game is only way they can win. So far, the Colts have been quite stout in their run d (balt game esp). Grossman has no comeback ability and is tremendously bad when down.

Colts -7.

I'm 6-2. I"m betting around 2 units per game.

On oh yeah, i highly doubt the line will move beyond -7.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad all the "sharps" picked bears +7. hehe. 7-2 this playoff season ...WHOOHOO!