Two stoxtrader hands

[disjunction]

Yeah why not. Keep in mind that I did this quick and also I'm a certified moron (you have to apply in the mail).

47 cards out.

30 cards, 63.8% lose you 1 SB. 3 cards, 6.4%, gain you (estimated) 12.5 SB. 8 cards, 17%, lead to backdoor flush, I did more math and got a gain of 1.6 SB. The 6 remaining backdoor str8 cards I assigned -.45 EV. I weighted things by multiplying (percent)x(EV), and got:

-.638
+.8
+.27
-.45

= -.02 EV

What you get is roughly a wash. This is where some people tell me that I didn't consider if you hit but then he rivers you, as well as some other low probability stuff, but I'm offsetting this by the times your ace-high is best and you outplay him, which is kind of the reason stoxtrader was giving.

[Yoplait, BIMO]

If your ace-high is best, how are you planning on outplaying him? You're either slightly ahead or way behind here and you really will have a hard time realizing your equity (unless you plan on straight calling down).

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
If your ace-high is best, how are you planning on outplaying him? You're either slightly ahead or way behind here and you really will have a hard time realizing your equity (unless you plan on straight calling down).

[/ QUOTE ]

You hit one of your backdoor draw cards on your turn to stay in the hand. Then he either doesn't bluff the river, or he does bluff and you call.

On a side note, I forgot to include equity for hitting your 3.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If your ace-high is best, how are you planning on outplaying him? You're either slightly ahead or way behind here and you really will have a hard time realizing your equity (unless you plan on straight calling down).

[/ QUOTE ]

You hit one of your backdoor draw cards on your turn to stay in the hand. Then he either doesn't bluff the river, or he does bluff and you call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Presumably we can improve our earn rate somewhat by only calling down "safe" river cards.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
On Hand2, a semibluff checkraise is getting followed by an autobet on the turn. You'll have to fold. With these (5/10) assumptions, peeling is incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't remember the exact hand, but im certainly not auto-folding on the turn unimproved. In my games I'm often calling down with ace high.

[siegfriedandroy]

1: i guess stox is thinking that if he pairs his 7 he is still behind either a q or 10. But with the 2nd flop, a paired 7 can beat either a 5 or 2. I have no idea mathematically how Stox justifies this- curious to see the responses.

2: Yeah, i guess peeling is okay there. But why is he not raising like in the hypothetical flop from hand 1? Also, why is he okay to fold in hand 1 (where bb could also be on a draw) but not here? the pot is slightly bigger, but how mathematically does this now sway it to a call?

These situations are very nebulous to me, and Im interested if Stox is able to provide clear and definitive logic to justify his play here. Both situations seem pretty close, and Im not sure whether there is a clear answer either way.

[siegfriedandroy]

how do you know that you can offset bad rivers with the times your ace high is best? what if there is a significant difference (i.e. bad rivers will occur far more than ace high winning). Not explaining this well, just want to know how you can just cancel out these two events.

[siegfriedandroy]

which cards are safe here?

[ddubois]

I don't get it. Is a JTx double suited board really in any meaningful manner more draw heavy than a QTx double suited board? I'm thinking BB probably threebets a steal with AJ+/KQ, so QT actually has more OESDs/gutshots: KJ, J9, J8, 98, versus Q9, 98, 87. Or is there something about a donk that you feel means a made hand more often?

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
how do you know that you can offset bad rivers with the times your ace high is best? what if there is a significant difference (i.e. bad rivers will occur far more than ace high winning). Not explaining this well, just want to know how you can just cancel out these two events.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the math I did, bad river means bad river redraw when you hit the turn. So not only do you need to draw an ace to beat his pair, he needs to redraw a bad river against you. This is a very low probability event, and shouldn't affect EV much. I'm kind of hand-waving here and saying that if you can milk anything at all out of your ace-high showdown value, it will offset this improbable river redraw parlay. As Nate pointed out, by making an intelligent decision based on the river card, we should be able to get at some of that showdown value.