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  #11  
Old 09-05-2007, 09:03 PM
Shoe Shoe is offline
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a "CNN Warning" it's from Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy Grantham is a very smart guy who has been bearish his whole life, so eventually he's going to be right, but the problem is figuring out when. He's a stopped clock.

But clearly Jeremy is at least partially right here. The resets on the bubble era 2 year arms is going to force even more housing inventory on the market which isn't going to be good for housing prices. My guess is the correction has one or two more years left.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it will take another 1-2 years for the housing market to correct itself. However, I do not believe this is going to have a major effect on the stock market at all, other than the occasional short-term selloff that will present great buying opportunities along the way.
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  #12  
Old 09-05-2007, 09:09 PM
kimchi kimchi is offline
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

Shoe - how many birthdays do you have every year?
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  #13  
Old 09-05-2007, 09:16 PM
PRE PRE is offline
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a "CNN Warning" it's from Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy Grantham is a very smart guy who has been bearish his whole life, so eventually he's going to be right, but the problem is figuring out when. He's a stopped clock.

But clearly Jeremy is at least partially right here. The resets on the bubble era 2 year arms is going to force even more housing inventory on the market which isn't going to be good for housing prices. My guess is the correction has one or two more years left.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it will take another 1-2 years for the housing market to correct itself. However, I do not believe this is going to have a major effect on the stock market at all, other than the occasional short-term selloff that will present great buying opportunities along the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you give a little more explanation to your reasons behind this?
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  #14  
Old 09-05-2007, 09:34 PM
superadvisor superadvisor is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a "CNN Warning" it's from Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy Grantham is a very smart guy who has been bearish his whole life, so eventually he's going to be right, but the problem is figuring out when. He's a stopped clock.

But clearly Jeremy is at least partially right here. The resets on the bubble era 2 year arms is going to force even more housing inventory on the market which isn't going to be good for housing prices. My guess is the correction has one or two more years left.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it will take another 1-2 years for the housing market to correct itself. However, I do not believe this is going to have a major effect on the stock market at all, other than the occasional short-term selloff that will present great buying opportunities along the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you give a little more explanation to your reasons behind this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Specifically, if you explain whether or not you agree with the following quote and if you believe that the quote would effect the over all economy:

"From these high levels, prices are guaranteed to fall. In doing so, they will reduce consumer borrowing and spending power. They will also increase mortgage defaults, most of which lie ahead, and lower financial profits and confidence."
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  #15  
Old 09-06-2007, 09:41 AM
Jcrew Jcrew is offline
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

My sentiment is that housing will bottom around 2010 or 2011, but it will be "alright" to buy on average in 2009.
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  #16  
Old 09-06-2007, 12:23 PM
Perplexity Perplexity is offline
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

grantham is such a nit
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  #17  
Old 09-06-2007, 05:29 PM
superadvisor superadvisor is offline
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

Was talking with a friend last night. He was paying $3,200 a month on his $400,000 mortgage after his ARM reset, his credit was hurt bad while he got behind on payments until he finally found a lender who gave him... get this... a 5 year interest only, adjustable negative amortization loan with a stated income. I asked him how he knew his income (he's a tip earner) he said "oh, i just lied to get the loan" his loan will reset to $4,500+ monthly payments in 2012.
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  #18  
Old 09-07-2007, 05:10 AM
pig4bill pig4bill is offline
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

Which mortgage company gave him that loan?
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  #19  
Old 09-07-2007, 04:47 PM
superadvisor superadvisor is offline
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

[ QUOTE ]
Which mortgage company gave him that loan?

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't ask, he said they were the only company out of dozens that finally approved him. I'm kinda happy for him I guess, he only has to make payments of $1,200 for 5 years before he forecloses as he was already on the way to foreclosure before he took the loan out.

I just think it's ridiculous how long and drawn out this whole housing crash is going to be...
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  #20  
Old 09-07-2007, 08:16 PM
Fishhead24 Fishhead24 is offline
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Default Re: Warning from CNN on financial markets

Stock market.......KABOOM!

Housing..........KABOOM!
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