Playing A Weak Hand vs A Weak Lead

[Jeff76]

This is a general question, not specifically hand related. I DO have a specific hand in mind, but I don't want to post it because I think there are other qualities about it that would draw attention away from the real question I have.

So the question is, how do you respond to a weak lead when you yourself have a marginal hand? Assume this is a standard player who will call too much with draws, can fold a weak hand, and isn't betting into the pot without some kind of reason. Here is an example:

Assume full stacks 100BBs.

UTG raises 3x, a player in MP calls, hero calls on the button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and the big blind calls.

Flop (12.5 BBs):
2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Big blind leads for 3 BBs and the other two players fold.

So here we have a villain who has made a tiny bet into a raised pot. In fact it looks like a blocking bet from a middle pair or a draw. From my point of view, we have the following lines available:

Fold- we have a weak hand and we missed our set. Villain could be suck betting with a monster and we really don't need to get involved.

Raise planning to check behind on the turn- Villain looks weak and we can find out right now if he's got a monster. We will get value from drawing hands and fold out middle pairs. The thing that sucks about this is that we really aren't denying odds from a draw since we are going to give a free card on the turn. Not that denying odds is super important here, but it basically turns our hand into a coinflip against a flush draw.

Raise planning to bet the turn- this certainly folds out middle pairs and gets values from draws, but we end up putting a lot of money in with a weak hand.

Call on the flop, fold the turn- A simple float where our hand strength is not really in play. We will bet if checked to and fold if he leads, even weakly.

Call, raise a weak turn bet- We call, planning to raise the turn if villain leads weak again, bet if checked to, and fold if villain leads strong. This will still fold out middle pairs and will charge draws when we can really deny odds. This also puts a lot of money in with a weak hand, but we will be doing it with more information- we'll have seen villain bet weakly twice rather than just once. Note: if this is our line, we have to be reasonably confident that villain will not bet strong on the turn with a weak hand simply because we called and didn't raise. Also, one strike against this is that I can't imagine a strong hand I'd actually take this line with, making it pretty exploitable. I do think, however, exploitability doesn't matter against most players who are leading weak into this board on both the flop and the turn.

Call on the flop, call on the turn- this keeps the pot small, but now we're definitely getting to showdown against a hand that either crushes us our we are flipping against.

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There are a lot of times where different lines work better against different villains, so I'm not looking for a cookbook answer; however, when I'm looking at a situation like this these are the things I think about when trying to make a flop decision. Not just about what villain has and may or may not do if I call or raise, but my line is going to be for the turn and river (though here the river will be pretty obvious if we get there).

Anyway, I thought this is a situation that occurs frequently enough to warrant discussion and what options are viable here (because I don't think all of them are), and what kind of reads might sway the decision one way or another.

[AmonRaa]

Call, raise a weak turn bet would be my usual line for reasons you stated.

[RyanCMU]

I think an important thing to consider is that Villain led into a multi way field...

If it was a heads up pot that I had raised and villain had donked into me for a small bet, I usually raise in a situation that we are describing.

However, because villain led into many players one of them being a preflop raiser not myself, I read villains hand as being stronger.

I really like your thought process, though where you talk about wanting to make a plan for future streets when you make your flop decision, good stuff.

But, yea in a situation like described above, I usually just let this go without much of an afterthought.

I think can mix it up a lot with floating and firing most harmless turns if checked to on the turn, however, that is player dependent and we would need better reads then what you provided.

But once again, in this case, I fold because villain led into a multiple players, I'm much more likely to float or raise the flop with plans of more aggression on later streets, if it was a HU pot, especially one that I raised PF.

[Renton]

just fold it, you've made plenty of money already in this hand and he figures to have at least a 5 or a flush draw with overcards (overcards to your pair anyhow) You may be ahead, you probably are getting correct pot odds to call, but its a bad reverse implied scenario which just isn't worth it since you are already plus ev.