5NL -Nut flush draw+overs on flop

[checkmate36]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($6)
Button ($12.33)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($5.83)</font>
BB ($5.55)
UTG ($9.95)
UTG+1 ($3.02)
MP1 ($7.87)
<font color="#C00000">MP2 ($10.90)</font>

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.05.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $0.15</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $0.4</font>, CO (poster) calls $0.35, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.38, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds.

Flop: ($1.40) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $0.5</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5.43</font>, MP2 calls $4.93.

Villian was a tag and I put him probably on an overpair to this flop with TT/JJ/QQ soI didn't discount my overcard outs as much as I usually do. I went with 9 outs to the flush and about 4 more for my overs for about (13*4)52% winning chances by showdown.

Is this push standard and do you guys come up with similar numbers to what I did?

Thanks for any info.

[jhill3535]

If TT is in his range, then 99 is probably in his range as well, I may even include 88, 77, and 66. Also I think you are discount that he has doesn't have AA or KK too much. You might have 13 outs half the time and 9 outs and him no redraw 25% and 9 outs with him having redraws 25%.

I probably just call. The pot odds on the call for just the next card are close, and if you catch a spade on the turn you shouldn't have any trouble making another $1 which will make it easily +EV, just to call.

[bottomset]

I'd be tempted to reraise preflop with the extra money in there

flop is ok

[ QUOTE ]
about 4 more for my overs for about (13*4)52% winning chances by showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

decent for estimation, however its off by a little bit

[checkmate36]

I didn't really think he would reraise with 66-88 though but I guess it could be possible. I guess 99 is possible as well.

[jhill3535]

not saying it is bad, just that you need to discount your outs some.