Aces up in trouble

blumpkin · #1 11-28-2006, 09:28 PM

Stud Hi

Suited not important here. a 4 brings it in, a T limps in, and I complete with (A5)A. The bring-in calls and the limper calls. On 4th I bet and both call. On 5th, I bet the bring-in folds, and the limper raises. The board are:

5th:
him: (xx)T48 raises_raises
me: (A5)A95 bets_raises
bring: (xx)46J folds

So I 3-bet and he capped. On 6th, we both caught Ts:

6th:
him: (xx)T48T
me: (A5)A95T

He bets out and I fold? Doesn't he have 8s full here? I have yet to see this guy do anything I would consider crazy. Maybe he started with (84ss)Ts and made two pair on 5th?? Seems like that's the only thing I could hope for.

mscags · #2 11-28-2006, 09:40 PM

ugh tough spot, but that is the worst possible card he caught for you. I think you have to let it go

PoorLawyer · #3 11-28-2006, 10:41 PM

Ugh that is a nasty catch on 6th for him. The first thing that comes to mind for him is certainly 88T or maybe 44T. I don't think he caps on 5th on a draw....Sure seems tough to let it go on the river for one more bet in a pot that big but I would expect to lose most of the time, thats for sure. He only has to be making a play something like 1 in 14 times though to make the call ok on the river. It does seem like one of those times where, even knowing that, you just KNOW you are dead and should fold it.

For some reason it just came to mind that this is an easier fold to make live than online. I don't really know why I think that though.

Bartholow · #4 11-29-2006, 12:05 AM

I think you can assume that you are losing if opponent is decent, yes. If it's just 3-handed, you're getting like 12.5-1 here. There are 37 cards unknown if we assume he has 88 down (or something similar), and you have only 2 live aces. 18.5-1 and obviously if you fill on the river your implied odds are still not even close. If you can hit a 5 to win too (he has case fours down??) then you'd have a call, even if the fives were only good half the time or so. But he won't have fours full much if at all here, so overall I'm pretty sure it's still a fold.

If you think villain is kinda insane I'd consider calling down.

BTirish · #5 11-29-2006, 12:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
For some reason it just came to mind that this is an easier fold to make live than online. I don't really know why I think that though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because when playing online, you just have to click a button to "look him up." When playing live, you have to actually put chips into a pot that you are nearly certain you're going to lose.

Stakes and opponent read make the real difference here, but against most opponents it's a fold. Most of the two pair hands he might have been frisky with on 5th are now full.

Andy B · #6 11-29-2006, 12:39 AM

It's kind of hard to imagine he has anything other than other than 88 down. Maybe he's got the other two Aces down, but that also leaves you with two outs.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he started with (84ss)Ts and made two pair on 5th??

[/ QUOTE ]

And you said suits didn't matter. If the Four that brought it in and the Four and the Eight he has on board are all of different suits from his door card, then (48)Ts is a possible starting hand for him. Let's say it is. In that case, there's one way he can have 48 down, one way he can have AA down, and three ways he can have 88 down. I think we can discount AA some since he probably would have raised coming in with it and might not jam with it. And maybe discount the 84 since he might not have capped with two crappy pair. There's an equity calculation in here that I don't feel like doing right now, but I'm guessing that folding was probably best.

PoorLawyer · #7 11-29-2006, 12:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For some reason it just came to mind that this is an easier fold to make live than online. I don't really know why I think that though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because when playing online, you just have to click a button to "look him up." When playing live, you have to actually put chips into a pot that you are nearly certain you're going to lose.

Stakes and opponent read make the real difference here, but against most opponents it's a fold. Most of the two pair hands he might have been frisky with on 5th are now full.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also think it is more likely someone is making a move online. Maybe its the anonymity as well as just clicking a button...if someone wants to get frisky and get caught with their hand in the cookie jar its easy for them to leave the table, change tables, etc.

Agreed that villain has to be a bit of a nut to call down.

blumpkin · #8 11-29-2006, 01:00 AM

This is a full 8-handed game.

cgrohman · #9 11-29-2006, 03:59 AM

If I am going to fold to 1 bet on 6th, then I am folding to his cap on 5th. His hand aint changin'. And by the way, unless I have seen this dude go physcho before, I am folding to his cap on 5th

Brad1970 · #10 11-29-2006, 10:26 AM

Pocket eights would make sense for him. He could think you're trying to steal on 3rd with your ace in a short handed game. Its a tough fold but probably a good one.

FWIW, if I were your villian and did have buried 8's or possibly split 10's, I would have raised in front of you...