Heisman Prop Bet

[SunOfBeach]

MyTurn, Iggy, Bills, Najdorf, etal.... help needed [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

A guy who works for me wants to bet his paycheck this week (it's about 1.5k, so sizeable enough for me to take this somewhat seriously) on the Heisman.

I get 8 guys, he gets the field, I have to give him 2:1 odds. So... if one of my 8 wins it, then in a few months I have to send ~3k his way, and if someone else wins, I have to send 0 his way. I get to hold back his check this week for the bet, and there's no real credit risk here or anything on either side (we're good friends, and besides... I'm holding the money).

I think that this bet is clearly +EV for me, though his repeated "it's too early... it's a crazy year... no real frontrunner yet..." comments are making me want to really optimize this thing.

Here's where I'm leaning now:

Tebow - cuz he's the man
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford - cuz Okla may win it all
Booty
Matt Ryan - good darkhorse? potential BCS bowl team?
Mike Hart
DeSean Jackson

This has got to be +EV for me, right? Anyone else you'd throw in, and anyone you'd take out?

[smbruin22]

off the top of my head, i think that's a good bet for you...

but you need to change up your lineup... some guys can definitely go from that lineup... have to be honest though, haven't heard of one of your guys, so take my advice with grain of salt.

i don't see colt brennan (hawaii) or ray rice (rutgers).... i would have brennan for sure.

no slaton or white (WVU)... oregon QB dixon.... Kentucky huge huge surprise team....missouri (qb's name escapes me... chase daniels???) and south florida making noise... not sure you should actually pick any from this category except maybe slaton.

anyhow, collegefootballnews.com has a big heisman column every week and i have to think there must be a heisman journalist poll somewhere. or live heisman odds

[smbruin22]

just to add my above analysis.... woodson of ky is way up lists. although i see you did have him...

dixon from oregon cracking top 5 lists.... broham still hanging around....... don't see much bradford, but a little for sure.

anyhow, mcfadden and tebow are 1-2 in most lists i saw.

[SunOfBeach]

ok, this is already definitely helping. Starting a list of some blockheaded moves I made (ie guys I may have left out, shown to me by Bruin):

Colt Brennan - DEFINITELY going on my list

Ray Rice - Also definitely going on

West Virginia - Dont know if I should use Slaton or White (I'm thinking Slaton), but I need one of them. Maybe I can wait to see if they beat USF on Friday night, and if one of them shines in the Friday night tv game...

Dixon?

[smbruin22]

as per my earlier "news google" heisman poll.kicks up a bunch of stuff. rocky mountain news i think has a good one. not sure if they're picking it up from a syndicated service....

interestingly, ray rice getting very little buzz... and brennan's buzz has gone down alot, although he must still be a shoo-in for a top 10 list.

if slaton/white could combine production, i think they'd be huge favorites

[kmaldona]

Curtis painter (4-0) top 25 team, 16 tds and 1 int. Look for him to get noticed after this week, and ND.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
West Virginia - Dont know if I should use Slaton or White (I'm thinking Slaton), but I need one of them. Maybe I can wait to see if they beat USF on Friday night, and if one of them shines in the Friday night tv game...

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't candidates from the same team tend to split votes? Bush won with Palmer, right? But Slaton is no Reggie Bush. I think you could go without a WVA guy on your list honestly.

- C -

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
West Virginia - Dont know if I should use Slaton or White (I'm thinking Slaton), but I need one of them. Maybe I can wait to see if they beat USF on Friday night, and if one of them shines in the Friday night tv game...

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't candidates from the same team tend to split votes? Bush won with Palmer, right? But Slaton is no Reggie Bush. I think you could go without a WVA guy on your list honestly.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't.

Bush won with a Heisman winner on his team. Stuff like that doesn't affect an individual voter, imho.

McFadden
Rice
Brennan
White/Slaton
Woodson
maybe Tebow
Hart
maybe Brohm, no D is not his fault.

[UMTerp]

Noel Devine will probably spell Slaton enough this year that I wouldn't worry too much about leaving Slaton off the list. And the only way Pat White has a shot is if WVU goes 11-0, since Slaton is their "star".

Brohm's team is too bad for him to win. 7-4 quarterbacks don't win Heismans.

Matt Ryan is a good pick IMO - better than any of the Big East guys except Rice. Look at BC's schedule - they'll alomst definitly be 7-0, and he should get some good pub when he takes an undefeated team on National TV and throws five TDs in South Bend in about a month.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Curtis painter (4-0) top 25 team, 16 tds and 1 int. Look for him to get noticed after this week, and ND.

[/ QUOTE ]

while great players,
no way would I put Painter or Woodson or Brohm on the list

for a QB to win, his team has to be a huge winner. It would be a stretch for either Purdue or Kentucky to last and win their conferences (which is nerely a per-req for a QB).

A RB such as McFadden can win the heisman even with a slumping team. It would be incredibly hard, but not unprecedented.

Ever since Gino Toretta won over Marshall Faulk, the award has become quite the glamour piece for a good player from one of the top 5 teams in the country after the regular season.

Colt Brennan could overcome the top 5 because Hawai'i could go undefeated with him putting up ridic stats.