2008 Presidential Election

[Bulldog]

It seems to me that the upcoming Presidential election is much more wide open than in the past. How many names would you need to list to be sure to include the next Prez? 8? More?

[TomCollins]

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It seems to me that the upcoming Presidential election is much more wide open than in the past. How many names would you need to list to be sure to include the next Prez? 8? More?

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2. Hillary and Fred Thompson.

[iron81]

To be sure you'd need a lot more than eight, but for 90% confidence, 8 is about right: Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Gore, Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, McCain

[irunnotgood]

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To be sure you'd need a lot more than eight, but for 90% confidence, 8 is about right: Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Gore, Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, McCain

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Paul has a better chance than Edwards and McCain.

[DVaut1]

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Paul has a better chance than Edwards and McCain.

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O RLY? Go make some money then:

http://www.bodog.com/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

Odds On: Who will win the 2008 Presidential Election?

John Edwards: 14/1
John McCain: 16/1
Ron Paul: 65/1

But yeah, you know better than professional handicappers.

[TomCollins]

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To be sure you'd need a lot more than eight, but for 90% confidence, 8 is about right: Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Gore, Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, McCain

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I think that 8 puts you well over 95% confidence. I'd offer 20-1 on the field agianst those guys. The only thing keeping me from betting is tying up that much money for that long.

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
To be sure you'd need a lot more than eight, but for 90% confidence, 8 is about right: Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Gore, Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, McCain

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9: Michael Bloomberg

That's about it, though. I don't think you need to go beyond that.

[TomCollins]

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Paul has a better chance than Edwards and McCain.

[/ QUOTE ]

O RLY? Go make some money then:

http://www.bodog.com/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

Odds On: Who will win the 2008 Presidential Election?

John Edwards: 14/1
John McCain: 16/1
Ron Paul: 65/1

But yeah, you know better than professional handicappers.

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I think all 3 are huge longshots. However, McCain and Edwards could win the general election if nominated against the right people and Paul cannot.

[GoodCallYouWin]

"However, McCain and Edwards could win the general election if nominated against the right people and Paul cannot. "

Ron Paul would destroy Clinton, Biden or Edwards simply because Republicans love his small government / low tax styles and the anti-war left would probably support him as well. Wall Street has a lot of money but simply not a lot of votes.

[DVaut1]

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I think all 3 are huge longshots.

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McCain and Edwards are clearly second tier behind what I would consider the first tier candidates (Clinton, Obama, Giuliani, Romney, Thompson) but they make plausible bets for the right price and have some significant non-zero chance of winning. I'd take McCain or Edwards if they were at 25/1 to right now, and I obviously wouldn't touch Paul at 65/1.