a sexy $100nl c/r 4bet AI

[bilbo-san]

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whats yeti theory?

and Jay, that whats hes representing, but does he really have it?

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Yeti Theory is the reason I play good hand like the nuts on paired flops against so many people who simply read 2+2 way too [censored] much [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

[Bukem_]

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yeti theorem states that if the pfr 3bets a ragged/paired flop then he is FOS. But a flush draw can't be present, so it doesn't apply here anyway.
and i don't agree w/ it [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Yeah, more for qq4 flops, button vs bb or something where neither likely has anything, and last to put in a raise ususally wins. this flop doesn't really apply since hands like kts have good equity and you can't force them out with a game of chicken.

[Dire]

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This isn't terrible, villain will show up with air, lower diamonds, and a ton of hands we're flipping against. Probably slightly +EV, and at worst slightly -EV.

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I challenge you to find any realistic range that this is +EV against. This probably won't be massively -EV, but it is -EV and it's not even close to being +EV even against the most optimistic range. This play is 100% for FE, but how much does hero have - given the history here?

Everybody realizes the lack of real equity here, right?

Hero is 51% against 33-66. 49% to 88-99. 43% to TT. He's 46% against AKo. 40% against AK with the Ad. 40% against JJ-QQ. 35% to KK. 27/30 to AA with/without a diamond. Of course he's also like 20% equity against Axs of diamonds.

There is literally just about no real hand hero has any equity edge over besides worse bare flush draws. That 1% edge over small pocket pairs is lost to rake.

[sdfsdf]

on second thought, if you've CR'd him twice before dont CR now, lead flop.

[aislephive]

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This isn't terrible, villain will show up with air, lower diamonds, and a ton of hands we're flipping against. Probably slightly +EV, and at worst slightly -EV.

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I challenge you to find any realistic range that this is +EV against. This probably won't be massively -EV, but it is -EV and it's not even close to being +EV even against the most optimistic range. This play is 100% for FE, but how much does hero have - given the history here?

Everybody realizes the lack of real equity here, right?

Hero is 51% against 33-66. 49% to 88-99. 43% to TT. He's 46% against AKo. 40% against AK with the Ad. 40% against JJ-QQ. 35% to KK. 27/30 to AA with/without a diamond. Of course he's also like 20% equity against Axs of diamonds.

There is literally just about no real hand hero has any equity edge over besides worse bare flush draws. That 1% edge over small pocket pairs is lost to rake.

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I think this is a rather accurate range for him. I'm not very good at any complex math equations so I don't know how often he needs to be bluffing (with a hand he isn't calling a shove with) to make this push profitable, but I imagine he is bluffing here with a pretty decent frequency given history. I'd say this shove is probably around nuetral EV, but it's hard to say without doing the math.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

125,730 games 0.005 secs 25,146,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 2d 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.798% 40.58% 00.22% 51020 275.50 { KdTd }
Hand 1: 59.202% 58.98% 00.22% 74159 275.50 { 22+, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, Ad9d, Ad8d, A7s, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, QdJd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Q7s, Jd9d, Jd8d, J7s, T7s, 9d8d, 97s, 9d6d, 9d5d, 87s, 8d6d, 8d5d, 74s+, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, AKo, A7o, 87o }

[74o_Clownsuit]

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whats yeti theory?

and Jay, that whats hes representing, but does he really have it?

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Yah, people usually don't play back too much at this level, they just think 'f*ck you buddy, when I pick up a hand I'm guna rape you.'

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Definitely QFT.

Also his calling range makes this play marginal at best and a real variance headache at worst imo.