Do you find a value bet?

sharpie · #1 10-10-2006, 01:48 PM

Hey micro brethren, thought this might be an interesting one to post here.

Villain is 54/7/.9 over 30 hands. He donked MPMK and c/c down the turn when an overcard fell, and also donked TPNK in a blind battle against me (SB against BB) and called down my flop raise. So he seems straightforward and cautious.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, MP caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets, Hero raises, MP 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.70 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero???

BigBadBabar · #2 10-10-2006, 01:53 PM

hi sharpie, i'd definitely bet that river. often i'd raise the turn but he doesn't seem very aggro and getting 3bet would suck a bit. not sure what he'll turn over. if he had aa or qq he'd keep betting, or jj or tt, unless he's tricky enough to c/r the river which i doubt, given your read. Could be an AK that didn't get there, or an AQ or AJ(?) although not sure if that's in his capping range.

BBB

davelin · #3 10-10-2006, 01:55 PM

Why aren't you capping that flop or raising that turn first?

threads13 · #4 10-10-2006, 01:58 PM

I think I just check it down. He looks like he has an OP. He probably will call with aces and queens both. I don't imagine he has anything less than AA or QQ given how he played the hand.

sharpie · #5 10-10-2006, 01:58 PM

He caps preflop and bet/3 bets a dry flop, he's not doing this with overcards or an underpair. Once he 3 bets I think his range is AA/KK/QQ/JJ, and I'm only beating QQ.

sean c · #6 10-10-2006, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Once he 3 bets I think his range is AA/KK/QQ/JJ, and I'm only beating QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would include TT also but whatever if this is his range your not ahead often enough to value bet the river.

OOPs the ten fell on the turn nevermind. This still isn't a value bet against JJ+

threads13 · #7 10-10-2006, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hi sharpie, i'd definitely bet that river. often i'd raise the turn but he doesn't seem very aggro and getting 3bet would suck a bit. not sure what he'll turn over. if he had aa or qq he'd keep betting, or jj or tt, unless he's tricky enough to c/r the river which i doubt, given your read. Could be an AK that didn't get there, or an AQ or AJ(?) although not sure if that's in his capping range.

BBB

[/ QUOTE ]

Given our OP read, he may be very aware that the river could have just beat him. Since he is cautious, he is probably not wanting to bet the river when the top card pairs. I think the opponent's play falls in line with AA or QQ. Since he our play looks like either an OP or top pair.

I agree that he would keep betting with JJ or TT but I don't know that AK is in a 7% capping range.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #8 10-10-2006, 02:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why aren't you capping that flop or raising that turn first?

[/ QUOTE ]

ahead of QQ, behind AA and JJ.... ?

Shillx · #9 10-10-2006, 02:07 PM

I don't see any reason to bet the river. Best case is that it is a wash. It looks like AA-QQ that is scared of AJ but there is no point in putting bets in when the best you can do is win it 50% of the time.

With a real advanced read it might be a bet. Like if it could be QQ that is scared of AA or KK (but not AA that is scared of Jx) then it would turn it to a bet. And if he really put you on AJ and you knew it, he would be somewhat less then a 2:1 favorite to hold QQ against AA (depending on your possible range) and you should bet. But if he just puts you on Jx then QQ is probably just a v small favorite. Of course he could also be getting tricky with TT or JJ.

DrModern · #10 10-10-2006, 02:23 PM

His line confuses the hell out of me. I'd say this looks like QQ or AA that got scared that you just made trips on the river with AJ or something like that. Since he's 50-50 to hold either of these, and since the chance of him having a whiffed AK or something similar is about equal to the chance of an (out-of-character) check-raise, I think I check behind here.