|
|
|
|
#3
11-28-2007, 12:40 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: NHL Road Team System November 27th to January 1st
[ QUOTE ]
Wish we had units for those #s you posted - could be that % was built into the moneylines already. [/ QUOTE ] Right for instance, take tonight's game where the system suggests fading LA. That would mean playing SJ at -220 (best line at covers). The break even win rate at -220 is about 67%. The data from the system suggests that fading LA is about a 63.7% chance of winning. That makes tonight a no play on SJ. Your would need to find SJ at about -175 to break even. However what if we look at the other side, playing LA at +185 (bodog). Then we need to win about 35% of the time to break even. LA should win this game 100 - 63.7 = 36.3% of the time according to the data mined. That means LA at +185 could be profitable. Does this analysis make sense, I'm pretty new to sports betting. -Falker 
|
|
#4
11-28-2007, 01:27 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NHL Road Team System November 27th to January 1st
It would make sense except you are analyzing a system that is flawed- it is finding patterns in past results and assuming these random patterns will continue.
Is there any logical reason why the Dallas Stars would perform better than expected on the 3rd game of a road trip while the LA Kings would perform worse than expected.........year after year, regardless of their roster? No, so as is the case with most systems, it is flawed. But you do have a good point, most of these "plays" are on a home team against a team on a long road trip in which case the home team is usually going to be favored, sometimes at long odds.
|
 |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
