Messing around in 1/2 - I think I only have one choice here.

[Jay Riall]

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Villains play looks fine if he has a monster....

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How can this be when everyone is saying fold?

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Because plenty of people (and it seems Hero in the actual hand) will stack off.

[Casper05]

definitely fold...people don't get all fancy on paired boards at this level imo. I think this is 33/8x/TT 90%+ of the time...If he had JJ or 99 or something he'd just call down.

[yabastid]

man, I really want to shove here.

[ArturiusX]

I call all day and twice on Sunday. Its really simple, this board is so dry, he's bluffing a lot. The raise is big enough that he doesn't want action on such a dry board. The problem is, an 8 plays the same way, and thats exactly what a majority of idiot 1/2 players will be thinking.

He's peeling the flop with all kinds of random [censored], and once the turn comes, he'll be very tempted to bluff.

But by far the biggest mistake, that no one picked up, was I bet way way way too much on the turn. I want to be inducing bluffs here, usually I bet 28, then full pot a blank river. On this board, guys like this will peel way too often, and get tempted to bluff when they miss random [censored]. The next evolution from being a bet bot is to actually think about creating what seems to be opportunities for your opponents, when in actual fact, its a carefully laid out trap. I'm sure by slightly tweaking your lines vs shorties and dumb players, you could extract upwards of 2BB extra to your winrate.

Not only that, when you move up, you'll be a deadly poker playing weapon.

So, in conclusion, call here all day, but I should have bet less to make a call even easier and even more correct. +EV also includes possible scenarios that play out from little moves like betting $12 less.

[BigPoppa]

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The raise is big enough that he doesn't want action on such a dry board.

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:/

His raise is $80 into a $125 pot on what has b ecome a drawy board on the Turn.

This sets up a River shove that will itself be less than a PSB. This is perfectly consistent with a slowplayed 8 or FH (with the 8 being much more likely).

[ArturiusX]

Yes it is perfect consistent. Thats the point I'm trying to make. Its also perfect consistent with a dumb bluff, but we discount that in our minds because 'he always has an 8 here'. Please.

[Melchiades]

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Yes it is perfect consistent. Thats the point I'm trying to make. Its also perfect consistent with a dumb bluff, but we discount that in our minds because 'he always has an 8 here'. Please.

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We discount it because he has a bluff here less often than a monster. Yes it is a weird raise size, since even a minraise would make it easy to get it in on the river. So he plays less than optimal, so what? If we stack off here we play even less optimal. I'm glad you were right this time, but I think you will find that at 200NL this will not be a profitable spot to get it in vs a solid loosish unknown.

At higher levels players may make moves left and right? But at 200NL they will make a move on the flop here if they feel frisky. Calling the flop with a made hand and turning it into a bluff on the turn simply doesn't happen enough to profitably continue here.

But thanks anyway for the condescending tone and superior attitude. SSNL appreciates it.

Edit: That being said. There are lots of villains that I get it in all day with here. People who just can help themselves when the board is paired. An unknown loosish solid TAG just isn't one of them.

[ArturiusX]

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But thanks anyway for the condescending tone and superior attitude. SSNL appreciates it.

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Sorry for fighting groupthink of 'fold fold fold' posts! How many posts in the last week do you think talked about bet sizing in a way not relating to trying to stack off someone over 3 streets? How many posts actually discussed some different strategies?

I've played 2 orbits with the guy, seems solidish but maybe a little loose is exactly that read. He's in a few pots, doesn't seem to showdown too many. Its not much of a read.

FWIW, I folded, and I felt very dirty afterwards. Very very dirty. And no, he didn't show.

[BigPoppa]

Why not check behind on the Turn to get 2 streets of value out of low PP and to avoid getting raised off our hand?

The Bet-Check-Bet line almost always gets paid.

[Nielsio]

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But by far the biggest mistake, that no one picked up, was I bet way way way too much on the turn.

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I'm pretty sure I did.