Paying For Picks

[Gkeuler]

this may or maynot have already been discussed but I "DAFS" to no avail so here we go

is this a +EV valid idea, to simply go to a handicapping team that offers picks that you gotta pay for, buy them and them simply make enough bets to cover the cost of the picks and make a small profit ?

just to get this ball rolling

[Thremp]

Don't.

[Performify]

short answer, most of the sites advertising for-pay picks significantly exaggerate their records and very very few (if any) are actually worth paying for.

[Gkeuler]

so what your saying is I need to find a reliable one! (lol)

alright anyway has this topic been discussed alot and is there anyone out there right now thats paying for picks and preferably has done so for a year or more ?

[jccookjr]

In the NFL go with the home team underdogs. This year the dogs are 39-21-1 against the spread. Sometimes they look awful but they win.

[mmbt0ne]

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most of the sites advertising for-pay picks significantly exaggerate their records

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Or pick ML teams that are -1000 or higher so it looks like they have an awesome record.

[Performify]

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so what your saying is I need to find a reliable one! (lol)

alright anyway has this topic been discussed alot and is there anyone out there right now thats paying for picks and preferably has done so for a year or more ?

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No what I'm saying is in my experience there isn't anyone selling picks on the internet that are worth paying for. I phrased it the way I did, as its theoretically possible that someone legit exists out there. But I seriously doubt it.

Philosophically, it doesn't make any sense. if you had the ability to make strong, reliable sports betting picks you're not going to sell them. You're going to build a syndicate and/or grow your bankroll significantly and exploit the edges yourself, not sell them to others.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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In the NFL go with the home team underdogs. This year the dogs are 39-21-1 against the spread. Sometimes they look awful but they win.

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in every sport....take small home dogs
free monies

[CarlSpackler]

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[ QUOTE ]
so what your saying is I need to find a reliable one! (lol)

alright anyway has this topic been discussed alot and is there anyone out there right now thats paying for picks and preferably has done so for a year or more ?

[/ QUOTE ]

No what I'm saying is in my experience there isn't anyone selling picks on the internet that are worth paying for. I phrased it the way I did, as its theoretically possible that someone legit exists out there. But I seriously doubt it.

Philosophically, it doesn't make any sense. if you had the ability to make strong, reliable sports betting picks you're not going to sell them. You're going to build a syndicate and/or grow your bankroll significantly and exploit the edges yourself, not sell them to others.

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I disagree with this. If you're a winning handicapper, why not place your bets, and then sell them to make more $$$$? Even if you're the best sports bettor in the world, there is still risk involved, as it's pretty common knowledge there's no such thing as a true lock (with the exception of my cfb play of the year which is now 2-0 dating back to my first poty in 2005 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). But the $$$ you make from selling your picks IS a lock.

Whenever this topic is brought up, people rarely mention that a winning sports bettor is very likely to have the same poor bankroll/money management and/or other leaks (i.e. pit games, poker, bad investments, etc.) as a winning poker player. Why not take the guaranteed $$$ which come from selling your picks? In the best case scenario, you put together a string of consecutive winning years, build your customer base, and grow your business.

Also, theoretically is there not a point where your bankroll grows so large that you as an individual cannot exploit all of your edges with the maximum wagers you would like?

[CarlSpackler]

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so what your saying is I need to find a reliable one! (lol)

alright anyway has this topic been discussed alot and is there anyone out there right now thats paying for picks and preferably has done so for a year or more ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've only used one service in my life, and that was Dr. Bob Sports college football picks, for like 4 years. I really liked his detailed statistical analysis of the games, and I did learn some things from his write ups.

I won $$$ with him each of the first 3 years, and I lost $$$ the last year (my losing season was less than any of my individual winning seasons). I quit using his service after the losing season, and that was like 4 or 5 years ago I think. I have no idea how he's been doing the last few years, although one of my friends still uses him religiously and claims to win $$$ every year - tifwiw.

I should also note that I didn't play all of his picks blindly. If I absolutely hated one of his picks, I usually wouldn't play it, and this did help increase my winning %. Also, one of those winning seasons would of been close to break even had I not bet Hawaii like 5 times after suffering through a losing or breakeven day with the good doctor's picks.

When I did use him, I won the most $$$ on his smaller conference picks (i.e. MAC, WAC, etc.). I'm talking about teams I didn't see play all year or could even name a player. I have a theory that the lines on these "mid-major" conference games were much softer 5 - 10 years ago than they are now, due to the massively increased exposure of these leagues since then on tv, and more information being readily available.


You want my advice? If you are serious about winning $$$ betting sports, learn how to become a winning handicapper yourself, instead of relying on a service. If you are betting sports as a purely recreational activity, don't have a problem with losing your bankroll, and don't want to put in the time and effort to properly handicap, then I think it's fine to use a reputable service (oxymoron?).