LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD) - Page 141

Mark_K · #**1401** 04-20-2007, 11:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nez,

You've played in MANY games with Nich. Have you ever seen him play like this?

Last night I searched games he's played as villager and wolf. In ALL his villager games, he's been a participating very wolf-hunting villager. In this game he is zip on both.
And yet he has had time to play Turbo's over the last few days.... He IS around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mark: why do we need to decide between Nich & Herbie today?

This problem will be solved soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because all the remaining wolves are power wolves. A lynch of Sauron or the roleblocker would be a huge hit to the wolves.

Zurvan · #**1402** 04-20-2007, 11:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nez,

You've played in MANY games with Nich. Have you ever seen him play like this?

Last night I searched games he's played as villager and wolf. In ALL his villager games, he's been a participating very wolf-hunting villager. In this game he is zip on both.
And yet he has had time to play Turbo's over the last few days.... He IS around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mark: why do we need to decide between Nich & Herbie today?

This problem will be solved soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because all the remaining wolves are power wolves. A lynch of Sauron or the roleblocker would be a huge hit to the wolves.

[/ QUOTE ]

And lynching the Doctor is a huge hit to us. This is all about risk/reward, and we don't have enough info to decide between Nich & Herbie.

Zurvan · #**1403** 04-20-2007, 11:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Nez,

You've played in MANY games with Nich. Have you ever seen him play like this?

Last night I searched games he's played as villager and wolf. In ALL his villager games, he's been a participating very wolf-hunting villager. In this game he is zip on both.
And yet he has had time to play Turbo's over the last few days.... He IS around.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this is addressed to nez, but since we agree (*shudder*) I'll answer.

All-Info.

Mark_K · #**1404** 04-20-2007, 11:38 AM

BTW, How is lynching Aragorn a "Huge" hit?

He can only protect himself or Eowyn at 50%. Zero with the roleblocker alive.

It's a hit but not huge...

Zurvan · #**1405** 04-20-2007, 11:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, How is lynching Aragorn a "Huge" hit?

He can only protect himself or Eowyn at 50%. Zero with the roleblocker alive.

It's a hit but not huge...

[/ QUOTE ]

If we lynch the doctor, it's effectively giving the wolves an extra kill.

They will have to night kill him at some point. If we do that for htme, then they get to use that night kill on somebody else.

If we lynch the roleblocker before the seer comes out, then they can either take a 50% shot at the seer, or kill the doctor. If we assume there's a 50/50 chance that they go seer/doctor at that time, then we have a 75% chance of getting an extra peek out of the seer.

Even if the seer dies before the doctor, every player we lynch that the wolves would otherwise have to eat, instead of lynching an unknown, is a gift for the wolves.

The village has done pretty bad so far this game. We should try and do one thing right, at least.

Mark_K · #**1406** 04-20-2007, 11:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nez,

You've played in MANY games with Nich. Have you ever seen him play like this?

Last night I searched games he's played as villager and wolf. In ALL his villager games, he's been a participating very wolf-hunting villager. In this game he is zip on both.
And yet he has had time to play Turbo's over the last few days.... He IS around.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this is addressed to nez, but since we agree (*shudder*) I'll answer.

All-Info.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice try but I read his posts in Hacker Attack. He was involved and posted strategy.

I even have a great quote of his from 3/6 @8:48am but people frown on quoting other games.

VoraciousReader · #**1407** 04-20-2007, 11:46 AM

Nobody seems to feel like commenting on my suggestion.

kill chuckleslovakian

Mark_K · #**1408** 04-20-2007, 11:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BTW, How is lynching Aragorn a "Huge" hit?

He can only protect himself or Eowyn at 50%. Zero with the roleblocker alive.

It's a hit but not huge...

[/ QUOTE ]

If we lynch the doctor, it's effectively giving the wolves an extra kill.

They will have to night kill him at some point. If we do that for htme, then they get to use that night kill on somebody else.

If we lynch the roleblocker before the seer comes out, then they can either take a 50% shot at the seer, or kill the doctor. If we assume there's a 50/50 chance that they go seer/doctor at that time, then we have a 75% chance of getting an extra peek out of the seer.

Even if the seer dies before the doctor, every player we lynch that the wolves would otherwise have to eat, instead of lynching an unknown, is a gift for the wolves.

The village has done pretty bad so far this game. We should try and do one thing right, at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, yes it a hit and if the stars align we could squeek a little more usefulness out of him.

But remember the wolves know who the "real" Aragorn is in this game. At this point in time, they can kill him at will. His value to the village has dropped...

fmxda · #**1409** 04-20-2007, 11:51 AM

Hmm, chuckles isn't a terrible idea. There's a chance that it was a double wolf wagon and chuckles' posts before he was lynched were kinda bad like the one where he asks gt1t "am I Frodo?".

We can't lynch Herbie now that he's claimed Aragorn. Obviously we can and should let the wolves sort that out; obviously they're not letting an angel live forever.

Zurvan or clowntable today probably.

Nez477 · #**1410** 04-20-2007, 11:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Still no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for me, nez?

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting there I guess.

In fact I need to recap everyone right now for my own sanity.

Villagers
Jack Bando - He hasn't posted a ton, but I thought his d1 was the most villagery day I'd ever seen from him
Nez477
Stephen H - Putting together this list I have no reason to think he's not village

Gollum (probably)
GetThere1Time

Aragorn Claims
Nicholasp27 - 85% Aragorn, his claim makes TONS more sense to me than Herbie's.
HerbieGRD - 85% Wolf, see above, in fact, villager Eskimo's response to the claim was poor, I'm bumping Eskimo to meh-village

Meh-Villagers
ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S - Kind of a risky read IMO, but he's made 0 wolfy posts for a couple days now, and is making sense, and for my sanity's sake I need to read him as a villager for the time being
VoraciousReader - Mostly because everyone is telling me to put her here… I can't get over like 4 posts of hers d2
Zurvan/RichC - He's restored my sanity and relieved some of my frustration in the thread today, and thus far his thoughts align with mine
FortFun - He was my first villager tell, but has declined some since

Meh
Thebram
Jeremy517

The Rest
fmxda - Still think he totally wolf telled on d3, or maybe it was two, by asking forced questions
Mark_K - For a newer player, he is either playing the most thorough villager game ever or is a wolf with inside info
chuckleslovakian - VERY VERY solid vote. Check out his voting pattern and thoughts this game. He has voted for people he hasn't even mentioned on a couple occasions, just seems to be flying by with nothing to add because he is a wolf…. Might vote him today
clowntable - This one just fits. Looking at the posting style of the players this game, he's played the game exactly as a wolf would… stay UTR, pop in and say meaningful yet not meaningful things and keep pressure off of him
FCBLComish - He's in this game? His game thus far was almost identical to TFG's… but I think he's more an uninterested villager than anything

wdcbooks
wdcbooks - I think this read is my best one