Noob question about pushing preflop late in a tourney.

[Michaelson]

I'm a pretty inexperienced tourney player, though I've had some okay results. Just got through playing the $550 Short Handed tourney at Crown Casino. I cashed, but I'm not sure aboutone of my last hands.

Basically I had been quite lucky throughout, very aggressive and had a pretty laggy image. I had to shut up shop for a while as a result of this, and I had been pretty card dead. So the blinds are $3000/$6000 and it is folded around to me in the small blind. I have about $60,000 and the big blind has $42,000 after posting.

So anyway, this guy is pretty tight, and I think probably the weakest spot on the table (except perhaps for the drunken and maniac chip leader 2 to my left, but he's not going to give up on his blinds easily). I look down at K3 of diamonds, and I push. He picks up AK, calls and wins the pot.

Now is this a standard push by me? I attempted to crunch the numbers, but I suck at maths so I was wondering if someone could double check for me...

I figure villain calls with AJ and better and 88 and better. I think that's a pretty generous range, and it constitutes 6.8% of possible holdings. Against that range I have 31.4% equity if called.

So, 93.2% of the time I win the $9000 pot without a fight. 6.8% of the time I am called. When I am called, I win the $9000 pot + his remaining $42000 ($51000) 31.4% of the time, and I lose $45000 68.6% of the time.

So, the ev is:

EV = (93.2% * $9000) + 6.8% * [(31.4% * 5100) + (68.6% * -$45000)
= $8388 + 6.8% * ($1601.4 - $3087)
= $8388 + 6.8% * -$1485.6
= $8388 - $101.02
= $8286.98

Is that right? If so, I need to push preflop more often!

[Hundrye]

According to sklansky-chubukov numbers, this is a push even when your opponent is playing perfect. So definitely easy push.

[Speel Posher]

Normally against a tight player like the one you are describing, any kind of raise is going to make him fold a marginal hand, even a min-raise from my experience.

If you make the standard raise, he probably still folds the majority of the time, and if he calls, you can evaluate the flop and decide what to do from there(shove, check to a dangerous board, etc.)

If he re raises you pre-flop:
being the tight player that he is, you know he has you dominated and thus can fold your hand. Having about 40k in chips does suck, but at least you are still in the tourney. You are not severely crippled yet, but the next move you would make would be an all in.

[ItalianFX]

[ QUOTE ]
So, 93.2% of the time I win the $9000 pot without a fight. 6.8% of the time I am called. When I am called, I win the $9000 pot + his remaining $42000 ($51000) 31.4% of the time, and I lose $45000 68.6% of the time.

So, the ev is:

EV = (93.2% * $9000) + 6.8% * [(31.4% * 5100) + (68.6% * -$45000)
= $8388 + 6.8% * ($1601.4 - $3087)
= $8388 + 6.8% * -$1485.6
= $8388 - $101.02
= $8286.98

[/ QUOTE ]

You say above that you win his remaining $42000 ($51000), but in the calculations you have it as (31.4% + 5100). Is that a mistake? I don't know if it changes much.