Two Plus Two Newer Archives Need some quick math help
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#1
05-08-2007, 04:53 PM
 DP388 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Marietta, GA Posts: 138
Need some quick math help

I'm going through a hand with a friend and I'm assigning a percentage to certain ranges of hands to figure out his % vs. villian's total range.

Am I doing this right?

60% of the time, he has QQ+,AK
30% of the time, he has 22-JJ, AJ-AQ
10% of the time, he has A9-AT, KT-KQ, QJ

From PokerStove:
28.978% { AsJs }
71.022% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

45.376% { AsJs }
54.624% { JJ-22, AQs-AJs, AQo-AJo }

69.017% { AsJs }
30.983% { ATs-A9s, KTs+, QJs, ATo-A9o, KTo+, QJo }

So....
60% x 29% = 17%
30% x 45% = 14%
10% x 69% = 7%

On average we are 38% against his range.
#2
05-08-2007, 04:57 PM
 Exitonly Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: There\'s treasure everywhere. Posts: 9,482
Re: Need some quick math help

didnt actually check the numbers, the steps are right though.

be careful weighing ranges on your own like that [as opposed to (# of combinations of hands in his range)/(total # of combinations of hands) like pokerstove/sklanksky does it] your estimates probably arent as accurate as you'd like.
#3
05-08-2007, 05:00 PM
 DP388 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Marietta, GA Posts: 138
Re: Need some quick math help

Ah, okay. That makes sense. If PokerStove is already making those calculations, what is the best way to assign a confidence level?
#4
05-08-2007, 05:07 PM
 Exitonly Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: There\'s treasure everywhere. Posts: 9,482
Re: Need some quick math help

If you want to tweak the standard numbers .. heres a quick and dirty example

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.516% 52.48% 02.04% 16174941 627577.50 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 45.484% 43.45% 02.04% 13391376 627577.50 { AA, TT, A9o }

you think he'd get here every time he has AA, 50% he has TT, and 25% A9o.. so you can go and pick specific combinations of the hands:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.289% 42.77% 01.52% 6591189 234075.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 55.711% 54.19% 01.52% 8351397 234075.00 { AA, TcTh, TdTs, ThTs, Ac9d, Ad9h, Ah9s }

(there are 6 combo's of TT, so i took out 3 of them, and 12 combos of A9o so i took out 8 (edit: looks like i took out 9, whatever you get the idea) .. if it were a serious question and suits were important than you'd have to pay attention to that)
#5
05-08-2007, 05:10 PM
 Sherman Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Ph. D. School Posts: 3,999
Re: Need some quick math help

[ QUOTE ]
Ah, okay. That makes sense. If PokerStove is already making those calculations, what is the best way to assign a confidence level?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's okay to weight ranges yourself if you have reads that make those weights accurate. Pokerstove does already calculate the probability of holding particular hands in a particular range. So, hands within a particular range are weighted by probability of getting dealt those hands.

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