I bomb JJ in blinds preflop and this stupid TAG won't fold

[goofyballer]

Villain is 22/14/4.3 over good sample. We haven't tangled too much, seems like he's been playing somewhat weak-ish so far. We've 3bet each other a couple times but the other person has always folded.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

<font color="black">Hero (SB): $407.50</font>
BB: $112.80
<font color="black">UTG: $203</font>
MP: $322.40
CO: $200
BTN: $156

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt (6 Players)
UTG calls $2, MP folds, CO calls $2, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $12, CO folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($32) (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $24</font>, UTG calls $24

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($80) (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $54</font>, UTG calls $54

<font color="black">River:</font> ($188) (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets all-in for $111</font>, Hero...


I two-barreled because I figure that given my nitty stats (which he should be noticing, being on a few tables w/ me) he should be folding almost any one pair hand on the turn, although it's hard to put him on one pair at that point anyway (is he limping 88 UTG? AQ?). So given that it's hard to put him on pretty much anything...what do I do on the river?

[cbloom]

I had a hand like this and I couldn't figure out WTF was going on in it.

The only things that make any sense are :

1) something like 9J or 88 or QT that he's just horribly mis-played trying to be clever

2) he's gone nuts and is trying to spew to you

[ImsaKidd]

I dont see how this is anyhthing but a fold? Hes a nit-tag, hes called twice in a 3b pot, and hes shoved the river?

[Tickner]

Okay so he limps UTG. Thats weird, but ok. Good raise.

Flop is good.

Turn I like because of the drawy nature of the board. You might still be good but also you need to chagne him to draw.

Now, on the river, I like to check/fold. But its weird because he might do this with a draw also (will he?). With no history of this or read on him being bluffy, and especailly on the read of him playing kinda weak-ish, I think his range kills u here. Maybe he called down with a T (TJ 9T) or a Q (although the Q seems less likely since he played so passivley and then shoved). I mean I tihnk he only really bluffs here with a whiffed flush draw, but theres still a lot of hands the beat you. Its really read/feel dependant here cuz ur getting 3-1. But I think is "standard" to fold.

[Fly]

He prolly has trips/AA/KK/missed draw in that order of likelihood.

[Kilillan]

If I had to guess, his most likely hand is 88.

But would he shove river with just queens up?

And how often is he calling two streets on a draw.

Is he the type to bluff when he misses draws?

[carrotsnake]

Fly, HUHHHH ??????? How in the world does he ever have AA/KK with those stats and that play. cbloom, villian like never has 88 here, and probably not QT either based on action. The hands that beat goof atm are 9T, JT, AQ(discounted cuz I think most villians check behind with this hand) and j9(maybe with diamonds ?). I say call.

[Fly]

[ QUOTE ]
If I had to guess, his most likely hand is 88.


[/ QUOTE ]

no way he calls 2 streets on such a drawy board with any hand &gt;= 2pair

[Kilillan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I had to guess, his most likely hand is 88.


[/ QUOTE ]

no way he calls 2 streets on such a drawy board with any hand &gt;= 2pair

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

I slowplay on super wet boards all the time

[Tickner]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I had to guess, his most likely hand is 88.


[/ QUOTE ]

no way he calls 2 streets on such a drawy board with any hand &gt;= 2pair

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

I slowplay on super wet boards all the time

[/ QUOTE ]

with sets?