facing massive overbet on flop with second pair

vandyhawk · #1 08-09-2006, 05:27 AM

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t400/t800 (Ante: t100)
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t5812
UTG+1: t8520
MP1: t7460
MP2: t18915
MP3: t47339
Hero: t29040
Button: t3800
Villain: t21928
BB: t22075

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
5 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t2250</font>, Button folds, Villain calls t1850, BB folds.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t6200, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Villain is all-in t19578</font>, Hero ???

This 3x pot sized push was rather odd. The villain in this case was a pretty aggressive player, but not totally crazy, and I had a hard time putting him on a hand here. I have second pair, and it's 2/3 of my stack, but can you put him on a hand that beats us?

nath · #2 08-09-2006, 06:36 AM

This is often a draw but depending on opponent it could be a Q-- is he inclined to push marginal made hands on drawy boards? If you don't think so a call is fine. Problem is your pot odds are so bad that you have to be right pretty often (and you're still a dog if he has a combo draw with overs to your 8 like JTdd).

schavuit · #3 08-09-2006, 09:20 AM

Without a strong read I'm folding this everytime. If he has a flushdraw and two overs he's ahead, and he might have a q. I can't really put villain on a hand that doesn't beat us, or which is atleast 50-50.

vandyhawk · #4 08-09-2006, 03:01 PM

My best guess was also something like 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Given that it's a $5 mtt on Full Tilt shortly after we hit the money, does that change the thinking here? There's really not much profit to be had at all till top 5 or so. As for the opponent, I remember making a couple notes of questionable plays, but hadn't seen him push like this yet.

RichC. · #5 08-09-2006, 03:08 PM

This is a pretty standard fold here. Unless you hit big, set or combo draw, you simply have to fold here. This looks similiar to a stop n go but terrible situation IMO for this play. you still have 26k left, just let this one go.

illini43 · #6 08-09-2006, 03:09 PM

This seems like a draw... but I've seen a lot of players push with QT, QJ here.

I think you are significantly behind his range, and you are getting pretty bad pot odds. I fold this.

DDBeast · #7 08-09-2006, 03:58 PM

If you have a read that he is pretty aggressive, I would call. He doesn't want to be called. I don't think this is a Q very often. More likely, a worse 8, flush draw, or even a gutshot. Even 55-77 is a possibility.

jeffman · #8 08-09-2006, 04:14 PM

fold

vandyhawk · #9 08-09-2006, 05:59 PM

If Full Tilt had a time bank, I think I would've been able to fold after considering his entire range and looking at notes more closely. As it was, I had a tough decision at another table at the same time, and decided that he must be on a draw (I hadn't seen him overbet any hand at all - made or draws) and that I was willing to take a coinflip more or less to become chip leader. As others said, I needed a much stronger read to make this play. As it turned out, he had A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for TPTK and the nut flush draw, and I was drawing to two 8's while avoiding flush, which I didn't hit.

Here's a new question then - whose play was worse? His pushing for 3x pot with a monster hand, or my call? His push is pretty unlikely to induce a call (when I'm thinking more clearly) given my opening range from CO with a big stack. If you were him, how would you play that flop? Check/raise my likely cb, lead into me hoping I raise his possible steal attempt so he can then push, other?. Anyway, pretty poorly played all around I think - thanks for comments.

RichC. · #10 08-09-2006, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If Full Tilt had a time bank, I think I would've been able to fold after considering his entire range and looking at notes more closely. As it was, I had a tough decision at another table at the same time, and decided that he must be on a draw (I hadn't seen him overbet any hand at all - made or draws) and that I was willing to take a coinflip more or less to become chip leader. As others said, I needed a much stronger read to make this play. As it turned out, he had A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for TPTK and the nut flush draw, and I was drawing to two 8's while avoiding flush, which I didn't hit.

Here's a new question then - whose play was worse? His pushing for 3x pot with a monster hand, or my call? His push is pretty unlikely to induce a call (when I'm thinking more clearly) given my opening range from CO with a big stack. If you were him, how would you play that flop? Check/raise my likely cb, lead into me hoping I raise his possible steal attempt so he can then push, other?. Anyway, pretty poorly played all around I think - thanks for comments.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think both plays are bad. His massive overbet was by far the dumbest play, but he did get it paid off by your horrible call. IMO, he should have c/r all in, given that you probably c-bet the flop and fold to his shove.