What is my line on the turn here?

APipeDream · #1 11-01-2007, 04:09 PM

Stars $4/180
40 left, avg stack 6200

Moved to the table 3 orbits ago. Table has been pretty solid minus one monkey who just got railed. I 3-bet villain 2 orbits earlier w/ JJ (didn't show). 5 hands ago I folded to his 5bb preflop raise after limping with 77 along with 2 other limpers before me. Could have raised myself, but stole blinds 2 of the last 7 hands and figured I would cross my fingers for a 7. Now this hand:

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t3855)
UTG+1 (t3010)
MP1 (t410)
Hero (t7550)
MP3 (t4586)
CO (t1225)
Button (t4810)
SB (t3390)
BB (t7305)

Preflop: Hero is in MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero raises to t450, MP3 calls t450, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds

Flop: (t1125) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t700, MP3 calls t700

Turn: (t2525) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ???

brad2002tj · #2 11-01-2007, 04:13 PM

That is a nasty spot. I don't know if I would check/call or bet/fold to shove.

tomek322 · #3 11-01-2007, 04:57 PM

c/f any normal sized bet... c/c some retarded bet that gives you 3 or 4 to 1.

What are you beating here?

BarryLyndon · #4 11-01-2007, 05:23 PM

First question you should always ask yourself is if you should cont. bet the flop here. You really want to take the pot down now, right? Wrong:

1. If a J hits, your opponent is going to get suspicious, so your implied odds suck.

2. Your reverse implied odds are not pleasant either. And, you need a plan for the turn.

3. Your chances of taking this pot down is really small.

Everyone in SSMTT assumes that all cont. bets are good. It's sad and it's just wrong. I would say the #1 problem with SSMTTers is with respect to flop play because they just don't know when to CR as opposed to cont. bet or when to just check/give it up. The OMG, AK, must cont. bet approach doesn't always work.

Small pocket pairs will fold on this board, but there are less combos of small pocket pairs than a myriad of holdings he will call. This Q, J, and 9 combo board sucks. If the board was Q 10 3r, I'd be much more inclined to lead or CR depending on the situation. When a J, K, or A comes up, I'm feeling a lot better about things. I also have more FE.

I would check the flop. Is that "weak?" No.

In certain situations, I may CR the flop, but if you think about it, that's just not such a good idea either.

I would check the flop and let it go.

Barry

levAA · #5 11-01-2007, 05:23 PM

1st I think this I really an ugly spot for a c-bet.

As played i'd check fold the turn.

APipeDream · #6 11-01-2007, 08:42 PM

You spotted my biggest mistake (at least I think so), c-betting the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Next time I check and hope for a J, otherwise, fold to a 3/4+ pot bet I think.

Anyway, I c/f the turn. He and I actually ended up going heads up and I fortunately took 1st. Such a badly played hand though. I didn't like losing so much for no reason here. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

BarryLyndon · #7 11-01-2007, 09:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You spotted my biggest mistake (at least I think so), c-betting the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Next time I check and hope for a J, otherwise, fold to a 3/4+ pot bet I think.

Anyway, I c/f the turn. He and I actually ended up going heads up and I fortunately took 1st. Such a badly played hand though. I didn't like losing so much for no reason here. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not that badly played. When in doubt, err toward aggression. You shouldn't take such a bad attitude toward making a continuation bet, almost ever. But, you should consider this a great opportunity to fine tune a potential leak.

Barry
PS: Congratulations on your score.