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#41
11-04-2007, 09:52 PM
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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
i'd do this even if the numbers ranged from 1-3. seriously..
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#43
11-04-2007, 10:06 PM
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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
1 in 50 to die? I see one-outers all the time. No thanks.. I don't take $1 billion for 1 in 50. I might take $1 billion for 1 in 500 odds tho... then again, prob not.
Life is just way too short and precious. 1 million years after you're dead, you'll only just be starting to be dead. L8r.. BB
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#44
11-04-2007, 10:11 PM
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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
Think you are forgetting that even if he does pick the right number, you get shot, then you are dead. Not like if he picks your number you are going to get tortured to death.
He picks the number, looks at the paper, then bang if he gets it. If he plans to shoot you at a later date, and you dont know if he got the right number or not it makes it 100x times worse. I guess thinking like this confirms my atheist views. I of course take the money btw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#45
11-04-2007, 10:12 PM
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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
[ QUOTE ]
So, 49 times you win 10M, and 1 time you lose life. 0 = 49(10M) + 1(-X) X = $490,000,000 [/ QUOTE ] No. $10m*(49/50) = $9.8m
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#46
11-04-2007, 10:18 PM
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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
I'd gamble.
Gimme da loot! Gimme da loot!
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#47
11-04-2007, 10:23 PM
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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
1 in 10 for $1mil
I do parties.
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#48
11-04-2007, 10:27 PM
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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So, 49 times you win 10M, and 1 time you lose life. 0 = 49(10M) + 1(-X) X = $490,000,000 [/ QUOTE ] No. $10m*(49/50) = $9.8m [/ QUOTE ] Every post I read in this thread that didn't correct that made me cry. But maybe it was some kind of retarded level.
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#49
11-04-2007, 10:32 PM
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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
I think that's the correct way to think about it. if your life is worth 9.8 million, you obv take this gamble. Your life has to be worth 490 million not to take it.
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#50
11-04-2007, 10:34 PM
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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
[ QUOTE ]
So, 49 times you win 10M, and 1 time you lose life. 0 = 49(10M) + 1(-X) X = $490,000,000. If you value your life at more than $490M, it's a -EV gamble. Personally, I thought for a while if I value my life at more than 490M$. Furthermore I think the varience in this game is too high for me to be comfortable, even if I value my life at less than that, and I walk away. Same situation, with 5000 #s, and 100K in suitcase, is less varience but still not good enough for me IMO. So I guess I value my life higher than that. If you make the #s 10x (i.e. make required value life to breakeven around $5B) I might reconsider). [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't work that way because you wouldn't sell your life for 490mil. Edit: http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm Accident/Injury causes death 1:1743 times and 1:22 over a lifetime.
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