$5 nl, is this +EV???

[Mase31683]

I've been agressive throughout the session, (16/12/7). I'm wondering if those numbers combined with the fact that it's such small stakes is going to make this play +EV.

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $15.73
CO: $2.97
BTN: $5.11
SB: $4.52
BB: $5.12
Hero (UTG): $5.47

CO posts $0.02
Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.08</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $0.28</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.60</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.19 and is All-In</font>,

[finalboarder]

It may be +EV depending on if 5NL players will call that with something like A7. But whether it is or not there are definitely plays that are more +EV. With that play you are going to fold out most hands except for a straight. You have an overpair with a oesd so your hand is probably the best right now. I would bet out .40-.50.

[Mase31683]

Well the SB already bet out the pot, so I couldn't bet it out. I was defintely raising, so it was a question of how much. If he has the straight or a set now, then I'm getting it all in there with him, because he'll re-raise my raise, and I'm not laying this down. Therefore I felt shoving now would be the best way to increase fold equity against overpairs larger than mine. Thoughts?

[slush420]

TBH people at this level rarely pay attention to your numbers. At this level I would call this bet since you have 10 solid outs and fold if he bets the turn big and you don't hit. By raising all in you turned a GREAT flop into a bluff and one which he's only calling with hands that he's ahead with. You're too deep to be bluffing all in on a 3bet pot and this is a level where villain can go broke anyways if you hit on this board.

[finalboarder]

Yeah sorry, I reading through the hand too quickly. I'm not really sure if I like the pre-flop call, but it might be fine at these levels if people are 3-betting with a pair. I say this because you're basically looking to hit a set with a hand like 88 against a 3-bet and its a lot of money to put in the pot just for that. I think I agree with a call on the flop. I like you thinking about the fold equity but I really don't think you have any folding equity against 99+ at 5NL. Players just won't lay down an overpair.

[Mase31683]

Thanks slush, that makes a lot of sense. That's what I realized after making the play, and getting called by QQ. When he made that call I realized I was thinking too many levels above what stakes I'm currently playing at. I really see what you're saying about turning a solid draw into a bluff, good advice.

[slush420]

think of it this way.. his original stack was $4.52 and his flop bet is $0.60. that's roughly 7.5/1 on his stack and if you calculate 10 outs with 47 possible turn cards, that's 4.7/1.. so you don't even have to stack him every time to make a profit but maybe even just get an extra bet out of him. not to mention the times a king or ace falls on the turn and scares him into giving you a free card. if you can do these calculations on a hand by hand basis, you'll be out of $5NL in no time.