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#1
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10NL KK turn
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
SB: $12.65 BB: $11.90 Hero (UTG): $11.25 UTG+1: $22.90 MP1: $13.30 MP2: $27.25 MP3: $1.50 CO: $3.85 BTN: $7.10 Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9 Players) <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.40, 6 folds, BB calls $0.30 Flop: ($1.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.20</font>, UTG+1 calls $1.20, BB calls $1.20 Turn: ($4.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.70</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $6.00</font>, BB calls $6.00, standard fold? |
#2
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Re: 10NL KK turn
No I don't think a fold is good here. You have to put in 3.30 more in a pot that is 19.55 that is about 6:1. Call at least, probably push.
Villian probably doesn't have the straight (8T preflop call makes it unlikely) so you are facing Two Pair or a Set (if you are behind) with TP you have 8 outs which puts your odds at >6:1. With the set you are in bad shape with only two outs and odds of 23:1. I just don't think at this level you will be behind enough to fold. Any comments are welcome. |
#3
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Re: 10NL KK turn
I say fold. Though the odds presented to you is favorable, the fact that BB c/c both Flop and Turn (he even flat call the UTG+1's raise) screams a lot of strength from him. I don't think we are ever good here. And if you call the Turn, you are pretty much committed on River, so it's not just the odds presented to you on Turn.
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#4
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Re: 10NL KK turn
I'm trying to think what hands smooth call pre-flop and then check/call the flop.
The only hands I can see him calling with pre-flop are medium and small pairs, for their set value. I can't see him calling pre-flop with SCs because most of the time if he catches anything it will just be a small piece of the flop, and then he'll be drawing from OOP. And that sucks. He might do it with AK, but I think even a bad player would 3-bet with AK and try to take the pot down pre-flop. And wouldn't most players, even bad ones, 3-bet with JJ+? After all, again, he'll be OOP. Wouldn't he want the initiative? Wouldn't he want to find out if his QQ/JJ is beat early, while the bets are still cheap? I suppose AA might smoothcall OOP preflop... Given that pre-flop range, the only hands that check/call the flop are AA, KK, 22, 99 & JJ. Maybe QQ & AK. That's not a lot of hands you're ahead of unless this is some kind of float with air by BB. 30 hands beat you, 22 don't. ~42% pot equity. TJC makes a valid point, though. After your turn bet and BB's check-raise there's ~$13.00 in the pot, $6.00 for you to call and you've only got $6.25 left. Like Matt & Sonny say in PNL, after 1/3 of your stack has gone in the pot, it is usually wrong to fold. 2:1 pot odds and you're roughly 3:2. Shove that last quarter and see. |
#5
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Re: 10NL KK turn
D'oh! Math error.
Only 24 hands beat you, because KK splits the pot. 24:22 = easy shove. Even is we discount AK & QQ a little, it's still not as bad as 2:1 against. Call. |
#6
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Re: 10NL KK turn
I have been reading PNL and trying to apply its ideas into my play.
The text points out that you need to have a commitment plan before putting in one third of your stack. You have the smallest stack on this hand so yours is the effective stack. There are a few excetions but its usually an error to put in 1/3 of your stack and then fold. Before you make your turn bet, you need to have a plan for the rest of the loot in your stack. I think the real question is what can hero do different leading up to the point of the hand in question. Keep in mind I only play 5NL so I may be in need of some correction in how I understand the text. |
#7
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Re: 10NL KK turn
How bad is a check on the turn by hero after BB checks the turn?
Once hero bets the flop, we need start thinking about if we will commit on this hand. I don't see any reads on villians so Im not sure if its correct to commit on this hand or not. I know that if Im not commited, Im going to try to keep the pot small and that leads to my question of checking on the turn. |
#8
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Re: 10NL KK turn
I'd push in whatever I have left and expect to see a set of Jacks.
* On the other hand, even if you do have the "odds" (6:1 whatevah...) to put your money in when you feel you're behind, I have laid down an overpair to save myself an 'obvious' loss. Why send good monay after bad? If it's already in the pot it ain't yours no longer. Some times the action and solid reads speak way louder than pot odds, in my mind anyway. Am I way off here? EN |
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