Week 3 College Football Pick'em (advice needed)

[tdarko]

Every year I am in a College Pick Em' League and currently I am in second place. The person in first place is crushing not only our league but everyone in the country with a 1st place week 2 ranking (out of thousands) and an 18th overall ranking. Just plain sick! Anyway, this week there are a ton of great games and it is a good week to gain some ground and so I have some thoughts and I am coming to you for some advice.

How the scoring works:

4 points- If an unranked teams beats a ranked team
3 points- If a lower ranked team beats a higher ranked team
2 points- If a higher ranked team beats a lower ranked team
1 point- If a ranked team beats an unranked team

Away Spread Home

#6 LSU -3 #3 Aub

#17 Mia -4 #12 Louisville

#11 Mich -6.5 #2 ND

#15 Okla -4.5 #18 Oregon

#24 TT 2 #20 TCU

Clem -4 #9 FSU

#7 Florida 2.5 #13 Tenn


My tentative picks

Aub (I would go with whoever was at home here)
Louisville (Mia just looked too poor against FSU)
ND (Last week they looked like monsters, Mich hasn't been tested yet)
Ore (I hate going against OU but their QB is bad and this is a good spot, imo, to pick up lower seed points)
TT (I am thinking this is another good spot to score)
FSU (but for some reason I am not sure about this)
The Florida/Tenn game I have no clue. I need help there.

What are your predictions, how would you play this saturday's picks? What do you think of my picks?

[mmbt0ne]

Take FSU -4 to the bank baby!!

[Farfenugen]

NU/USC?

[tdarko]

Farfenugen,

Something that I thought was clear that may not be is that the games are picked straight up, I gave the spreads to help with decisions...the way the game works is with the scoring system.

I went to NU and I always hate picking against them but at USC straight up is a fairly clear decision even with the Huskers being a really good team this year, probably a top 2-3 team in all of the Big XII. I would pick NU to cover 18.5 though.

~td

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
4 points- If an unranked teams beats a ranked team
3 points- If a lower ranked team beats a higher ranked team
2 points- If a higher ranked team beats a lower ranked team
1 point- If a ranked team beats an unranked team

[/ QUOTE ]

Consider the Clemson @ FSU -4.

If Clemson wins 20% of the time, you breakeven relative to picking FSU .2*4=.8*1

Clemson looks like the easy choice in that game since -4 != 80% favorite.

Sharp Sports Betting might have a table that translates point spread into chance of victory. If so, you could use that to make +EV choices in spots like that.

[mmbt0ne]

So wait, is there no spread involved in this pick'em? I though you had to pick with the spread, but Jeff's post makes me think otherwise.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
So wait, is there no spread involved in this pick'em? I though you had to pick with the spread, but Jeff's post makes me think otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the scoring, it wouldn't make any sense for the picks to be made against the spread.

Also, this thread should prob. be moved to sports betting.

[tdarko]

'Tone- No spread, the game is played by the points system, from unranked teams beating ranked teams and so on and the spread is there to help with decisions. For instance, Oregon is a 4.5 point favorite over OK but would be a lower ranked team beating a higher ranked team (worth 3 points), so an obvious +EV move. The point is to look for these +EV moves throughout each close game but some are coinflips...such as this week making it tougher.

Jeff- The sports betting forum sucks, this thread won't be moved.

[Terrabon98]

pick Michigan, they will destroy ND, you heard it here first.

[tdarko]

Terrabon,

I need to know where live, where you are from and what school you went to or attend please.

Thank you in advance,

~td