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#1
05-12-2007, 04:55 PM
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Thin value bet
Villain is 42/6/0.5.
Absolute Poker Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $2/$4 4 players Converter Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds. Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5SB, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls. Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3.5BB, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls. River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5.5BB, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, 
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#3
05-12-2007, 05:03 PM
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Re: Thin value bet
too thin IMO, lots of hands beat you that play like this and there's no a ton that you beat. 9x is probably more likely than 6x. 8x is probably more likely than 7x. smaller pairs don't make up the difference I dont think.
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#4
05-12-2007, 06:32 PM
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Re: Thin value bet
IMO, this value bet should be completely standard against a typical 2-4 opponent with that stat description. You dont just have middle pair on the flop, you have the 2nd nut flopped middle pair and the eight on the river is a great card for you since it is now significantly less likely that the villain has 8x himself.
Remember, the villain is still gonna call this river with any pair hoping you have two high cards, and if he check/raises you have a very easy fold. Also keep in mind that this type of player will still look you up with ace high too. Given his dynamic, this value bet will be profitable so bet/fold with confidence.
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#5
05-12-2007, 08:43 PM
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Re: Thin value bet
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, this value bet should be completely standard against a typical 2-4 opponent with that stat description. You dont just have middle pair on the flop, you have the 2nd nut flopped middle pair and the eight on the river is a great card for you since it is now significantly less likely that the villain has 8x himself. Remember, the villain is still gonna call this river with any pair hoping you have two high cards, and if he check/raises you have a very easy fold. Also keep in mind that this type of player will still look you up with ace high too. Given his dynamic, this value bet will be profitable so bet/fold with confidence. [/ QUOTE ] Ignore my post. For some reason I thought the board was 678T8. So my post is only relevant for that board. On the actual 67898 board this value bet is too thin IMO.
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#6
05-12-2007, 08:56 PM
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Re: Thin value bet
Yeah I was surprsied you were advocating a value bet when I first read it cause I remmeber a hand in MHSH where you were arguing against the masses for NOT value betting because a passive player is capable of playing top pair hands passivly up to the river (I agreed with u). I see the second post tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
This is much much too thin IMO. definitly even fishes can fold ace high here. and as gehrig said any 8, 5 , 9 and A7 all get played like this by a passive.
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#7
05-12-2007, 09:23 PM
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Re: Thin value bet
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I was surprsied you were advocating a value bet when I first read it cause I remmeber a hand in MHSH where you were arguing against the masses for NOT value betting because a passive player is capable of playing top pair hands passivly up to the river (I agreed with u). I see the second post tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] This is much much too thin IMO. definitly even fishes can fold ace high here. and as gehrig said any 8, 5 , 9 and A7 all get played like this by a passive. [/ QUOTE ] Im just glad I had a chance to rectify my post before everyone started calling me a retarded value betting spewmonkey. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Oh yeah and about that MHSH thread you mentioned. I'm still convinced that betting the river is a mistake and that everyone else was on drugs and I was the only one that saw the light. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Im assuming youre referring to the hand where the hero had JJ on the Q72x7 board or something like that.
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#8
05-13-2007, 10:54 AM
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Re: Thin value bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yeah I was surprsied you were advocating a value bet when I first read it cause I remmeber a hand in MHSH where you were arguing against the masses for NOT value betting because a passive player is capable of playing top pair hands passivly up to the river (I agreed with u). I see the second post tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] This is much much too thin IMO. definitly even fishes can fold ace high here. and as gehrig said any 8, 5 , 9 and A7 all get played like this by a passive. [/ QUOTE ] Im just glad I had a chance to rectify my post before everyone started calling me a retarded value betting spewmonkey. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Oh yeah and about that MHSH thread you mentioned. I'm still convinced that betting the river is a mistake and that everyone else was on drugs and I was the only one that saw the light. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Im assuming youre referring to the hand where the hero had JJ on the Q72x7 board or something like that. [/ QUOTE ] yep, was an excellent thread. passive player in the sb cold calls a raise, hero 3-bet JJ from the big blind. Q72 with a flush draw, turn 7, river x(lower than jack) completing the flush draw. small blind was check calling the whole way and checked the river. Started getting into good discussion about a passive players river hand range, A hi call down frequencies of a passive, sample sizes and using WTSD% stat in decision making. SB had a low WTSD.
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